航运市场周报 W48：美国 393.51% 双反初裁 · LA 大桥封闭 16 个月 · 四大联盟重返苏伊士Freight Update W48: US 393.51% AD/CVD · LA Bridge Shut 16 Months · All Alliances Back via Suez

美东时间 11 月 4 日，美国商务部对原产于中国的 N-环己基-2-苯并噻唑次磺酰胺（橡胶促进剂 CBS）作出反倾销初步肯定性裁决：认定中国生产商/出口商倾销幅度 285.94%，扣除已裁补贴后的现金保证金调整为 281.69%，与反补贴税合并后合计约 393.51%。裁决预计自《联邦公报》刊登后生效，届时进口商须按新税率缴纳保证金。On 4 November the US Commerce Department issued a preliminary affirmative dumping determination on N-cyclohexyl-2-benzothiazolesulfenamide (rubber accelerator CBS) from China: a dumping margin of 285.94%, with the cash deposit rate adjusted to 281.69% after offsetting the countervailing duty already found, for a combined burden of roughly 393.51%. The determination is expected to take effect on Federal Register publication, after which importers must post deposits at the new rate.

CBS 是典型的中间品，下游是轮胎、胶管、鞋材与工业橡胶件。税率到这个量级，等于直接关掉了中国原产的出口窗口。采购方现在要处理两件事：核对在途与未发运订单是否落在生效日之后（保证金按入关日计），以及评估从泰国、越南、印度转采购的可行性与切换周期。CBS is a classic intermediate input for tyres, hoses, footwear and industrial rubber parts. At this rate the direct export window from China is effectively closed. Buyers have two immediate tasks: check whether in-transit and unshipped orders will enter after the effective date (deposits are set by entry date), and assess switching to Thai, Vietnamese or Indian supply, including qualification lead time.

同一天（11 月 4 日），美国商务部对原产于中国的部分木制围栏组件启动反倾销与反补贴调查，申请方为美国木制围栏生产商联盟。调查范围覆盖木制围栏尖桩/栅栏板的成品、半成品，以及组装与未组装形态——也就是说“拆散出运”并不能自动规避。申请书主张税率最高 232.23%。On the same day Commerce opened AD and CVD investigations into certain wooden fence components from China, on a petition from a coalition of US wooden fence producers. Scope covers finished and semi-finished pickets and panels, assembled or unassembled — so shipping knocked down does not automatically fall outside. The petition alleges rates up to 232.23%.

立案到初裁通常 4–6 个月，这段时间进口仍按现行税率执行。风险点在于初裁若为肯定性，可能伴随追溯征税（critical circumstances）主张；而木制围栏是强季节品类，美国春季铺货集中在 1–4 月，时间正好压在初裁窗口上。From initiation to preliminary ruling usually takes four to six months, during which current duties still apply. The risk is a critical-circumstances allegation alongside an affirmative preliminary finding. Wooden fencing is highly seasonal, and US spring stocking runs January to April — right inside that window.

11 月 4 日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）更新涉伊制裁名单，对 37 家中国关联实体、6 艘关联船舶加注“次级制裁风险”标识。被加注主体多数本就在既有名单内，新增的是风险标识本身——含义是与这些主体交易的非美国个人和企业，也可能被追责。On 4 November OFAC updated its Iran-related list, tagging 37 China-linked entities and six associated vessels with a secondary sanctions risk notation. Most were already listed; what is new is the notation itself, which signals that non-US persons and companies dealing with them may also face exposure.

实际影响集中在三个环节：一是承运人合规筛查（部分船司会直接拒接相关方货物或拒发提单）；二是美元结算与保险（P&I、货运险可能拒保或加费）；三是中转港落地审查（阿联酋、阿曼、新加坡最明显）。即使货物本身合法，只要交易对手被标，链条就可能被卡。The practical squeeze comes in three places: carrier compliance screening, where some lines will refuse the booking or the bill of lading; USD settlement and insurance, where P&I and cargo cover may be refused or surcharged; and transshipment review at hubs such as the UAE, Oman and Singapore. Even lawful cargo can be held when a counterparty carries the flag.

Alphaliner 最新分析显示，跨太平洋已是班轮公司单位收益最高的主干航线：上海—洛杉矶即期运价约 7,500 美元/40 尺，航程 5,775 海里，折合每箱每海里约 1.30 美元，是欧线的五倍左右。10 月底口径，美西约 8,368 美元/FEU、美东约 10,565 美元/FEU，美东创今年新高。Alphaliner puts the transpacific at the top of carrier revenue per nautical mile: Shanghai-Los Angeles spot is running near USD 7,500 per 40ft over 5,775 nautical miles, about USD 1.30 per box-mile and roughly five times the Asia-Europe trade. At the end of October the US West Coast sat near USD 8,368 per FEU and the US East Coast near USD 10,565, a 2026 high.

船司希望在 11 月再加 3,000 美元/柜，货代端普遍不买账——11 月 1 日那波宣涨实际落地有限，多数船司用“开舱价 + 结算折扣”的方式暗中回落。支撑价格的其实是舱位而不是需求，旺季末段货量已在季节性走弱。Carriers want another USD 3,000 per container in November, but forwarders are not biting: the 1 November GRI landed only partially, and most lines quietly gave back through opening rates plus settlement discounts. What holds the market up is capacity discipline, not demand — volumes are easing into the seasonal tail.

成本端还有一条暗线：世界航运理事会（WSC）与美国零售联合会（NRF）正向 USTR 施压，要求永久取消对中国关联船舶的港口费；汽车船巨头 Grimaldi 则反向警告，若恢复收费将把运力撤出美线。政策一天不定，美线的“附加成本”就一天算不清。There is a policy thread underneath: the World Shipping Council and the National Retail Federation are pressing USTR to suspend the China-linked port fees permanently, while car carrier giant Grimaldi warns it would pull capacity from US trades if the fees return. Until that is settled, the US trades carry an unquantified cost line.

洛杉矶港与长滩港 250 名码头看守（watchmen）的合同延期于美西时间 11 月 4 日 17:00 到期。截至发稿，双方既未公布新协议，也未发生罢工，两港作业照常。这批人只占两港 ILWU 人力约 2%，但负责闸口值守、货物看护与码头安保——一旦离岗，闸口效率与货损风险立刻放大，而其背后是全美约 31% 的集装箱货量。The contract extension covering 250 watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach expired at 17:00 Pacific on 4 November. As of writing no new agreement has been announced and no strike has been called; both ports are operating. The group is only about 2% of ILWU labour at the two ports, but handles gate control, cargo watch and terminal security — roughly 31% of US container volume sits behind them.

更硬的约束在数据里：9 月洛杉矶港 104.27 万 TEU、长滩港 99.72 万 TEU，双双刷新单月纪录，长滩港今年预计首破 1,000 万 TEU 全年纪录。铁路端更紧——截至 10 月 26 日，两港积压约 3.57 万只进口箱等待铁路转运，其中超 1 万只已在码头停留 9 天以上；9 月卡车提箱平均码头滞留 3.18 天（8 月 2.95 天），铁路 7.19 天（8 月 6.75 天）。The harder constraint is in the numbers: September volumes hit 1.0427m TEU at Los Angeles and 997,200 TEU at Long Beach, both monthly records, with Long Beach on track for its first 10m TEU year. Rail is tighter still — 35,700 import boxes were waiting for rail as of 26 October, more than 10,000 of them sitting nine days or longer; September dwell averaged 3.18 days by truck (2.95 in August) and 7.19 days by rail (6.75 in August).

马士基 11 月 3 日公告确认：连接圣佩德罗与 Terminal Island 的文森特·托马斯大桥将于 11 月 7 日凌晨起双向全面封闭，预计 2028 年 3 月初重新开放，历时约 16 个月。这不是短期扰动，而是贯穿整个 2027 年的结构性变化。Maersk confirmed on 3 November that the Vincent Thomas Bridge linking San Pedro to Terminal Island will close in both directions from the early hours of 7 November and is expected to reopen around early March 2028 — roughly 16 months. This is not a short disruption but a structural change running through all of 2027.

大桥日均通行约 5.3 万辆次，其中港口相关重卡约 4,700 辆次，占两港集疏运卡车流量约 8%。加州交通厅模拟：圣佩德罗—Terminal Island 早高峰单程从 9–11 分钟拉长到 20–22 分钟，晚高峰部分方向从 12 分钟拉长到 27 分钟。绕行安排：Terminal Island 往返长滩及 I-710 方向走长滩国际门户大桥；往返威尔明顿及北部方向经 Heim 大桥与指定卡车路线；圣佩德罗往返 Terminal Island 经 Front St、John S. Gibson Blvd、I-110 与威尔明顿通道。The bridge carries about 53,000 vehicles a day, including some 4,700 port-related trucks, or about 8% of drayage at the two ports. Caltrans modelling shows the San Pedro to Terminal Island run stretching from 9-11 minutes to 20-22 in the morning peak and from 12 to 27 minutes in parts of the evening peak. Detours: Terminal Island to Long Beach and I-710 via the Long Beach International Gateway Bridge; Wilmington and northern points via the Heim Bridge and designated truck routes; San Pedro to Terminal Island via Front St, John S. Gibson Blvd, I-110 and the Wilmington corridor.

码头作业、船舶与铁路不直接受影响，但提还箱时间变得更难预测：拖车单车日均趟数下降、司机工时与油耗上升，拖车费与滞箱费风险同步抬升。长滩港已加开晚间与周六闸口服务。Marine and rail operations are not directly affected, but pickup and return times become far less predictable: fewer turns per truck per day, longer driver hours and higher fuel burn, which feeds into drayage rates and detention exposure. Long Beach has added evening and Saturday gate hours.

ZIM 10 月 30 日公告，将于 2026 年 12 月推出 ZX3 新航线并独家运营，港序为厦门—上海—洛杉矶—厦门，主打上海至洛杉矶 12 天直达——把美西快线从“卖舱位”推向“卖确定性”。对旺季尾段和春节前赶交期的货，这是少数还在增加直航供给的产品。ZIM announced on 30 October a new ZX3 loop to launch in December 2026, operated solely by ZIM, rotating Xiamen-Shanghai-Los Angeles-Xiamen with a 12-day Shanghai to Los Angeles transit — selling certainty rather than just slots. For late-peak and pre-Lunar New Year cargo, it is one of the few products still adding direct US West capacity.

反向的动作也在发生：ZIM 11 月 3 日发布两份客户通告，美东 ZNS 服务两个航次分别跳港——KURE 轮 12E 取消挂靠宁波，KOWLOON 轮 114E 取消挂靠上海，回程货改由釜山中转。华南、华东起运的美东回程柜需要逐票确认接载点。The reverse is happening too: on 3 November ZIM issued two advisories dropping calls on its US East Coast ZNS service — KURE 12E will omit Ningbo and KOWLOON 114E will omit Shanghai, with return cargo moving via Busan. Every US East return booking out of South or East China needs its load port confirmed case by case.

红海复航跨过门槛：Gemini、海洋联盟、MSC、Premier Alliance 四大网络都已确认有船重返苏伊士。节点排得很密——PA 联盟 MD1 由 YM TRUST 轮 0106 航次 11 月 10 日宁波首装、预计 12 月 7 日抵达达米埃塔；MS2 由 ONE SYNERGY 轮 003 航次 11 月 16 日青岛首装；长荣 11 月 12 日起重启中国—红海 OGRD；马士基与赫伯罗特 11 月 2 日把 Gemini ME1 改经苏伊士。Alphaliner 统计 46 条远东—欧洲直航中已有 24 条走红海，占相关运力约 63%。Red Sea restoration has crossed a threshold: Gemini, Ocean Alliance, MSC and Premier Alliance all have vessels back through Suez. The calendar is dense — PA's MD1 starts at Ningbo on 10 November with YM TRUST 0106, reaching Damietta around 7 December; MS2 loads Qingdao on 16 November with ONE SYNERGY 003; Evergreen restarts its China-Red Sea OGRD from 12 November; Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved Gemini ME1 back via Suez on 2 November. Alphaliner counts 24 of 46 Far East-Europe direct services already transiting the Red Sea, about 63% of deployed capacity.

但运价没跟上。马士基第 46 周欧线开舱价 3,000 美元/40 尺，环比再降 200 美元，为连续第二周下调；算上 100–300 美元的结算折扣，实际成交约 2,700–2,900 美元。多家船司已取消 11 月 1 日涨价计划，Linerlytica 直言“11 月 1 日涨价基本告吹”。11 月 3 日上期所欧线集运主力合约盘中跌超 8%、失守 2,400 点；10 月 30 日 SCFI 报 3,687.35 点，其中欧线 2,370 美元/TEU、地中海 3,350 美元/TEU；11 月 2 日 SCFIS 欧线结算指数 2,304.32 点、环比 +4.8%。Rates have not followed. Maersk's week-46 Europe opening rate is USD 3,000 per 40ft, down another USD 200 week on week and the second consecutive cut; net of USD 100-300 settlement discounts, deals are clearing at USD 2,700-2,900. Several carriers have scrapped their 1 November increases — Linerlytica calls it effectively doomed. On 3 November the SHFE Europe container index fell more than 8% intraday below 2,400; SCFI on 30 October stood at 3,687.35 with Europe at USD 2,370 per TEU and the Mediterranean at USD 3,350; SCFIS settled at 2,304.32 on 2 November, up 4.8%.

船司仍不死心：11 月 15 日生效的 FAK——MSC 北欧 4,600 美元/40 尺、西地 5,300 美元，达飞西地 5,400 美元。能不能挺住，未来两周见分晓。复航释放的运力与挺价动作会继续拉锯。Carriers are not done trying: FAKs effective 15 November put MSC at USD 4,600 per 40ft to North Europe and 5,300 to the West Mediterranean, with CMA CGM at 5,400 to the West Med. Whether they hold will be clear within two weeks, as returning capacity fights the price push.

马士基 11 月 4 日连发多条公告：远东—地中海自 11 月 23 日起加收旺季附加费，20 尺 750 美元/箱、40 及 45 尺 1,500 美元/箱；同一方向 20 尺重箱（VGM 超 25 吨）另加 400 美元/箱，覆盖合约、SPOT 与 Maersk Go 全部产品；远东—中东（阿联酋、巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特达曼）自 11 月 16 日起 PSS 20 尺 1,000 美元、40 及 45 尺 2,000 美元，越南起运 11 月 19 日、韩国起运 11 月 22 日生效。Maersk issued several advisories on 4 November: a peak season surcharge on Far East to the Mediterranean from 23 November at USD 750 per 20ft and USD 1,500 per 40/45ft; a USD 400 heavy surcharge on 20ft boxes above 25 tonnes VGM on the same trade, applying across contract, spot and Maersk Go; and a Far East to Middle East (UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Dammam) PSS from 16 November at USD 1,000 per 20ft and USD 2,000 per 40/45ft, with Vietnam origins from 19 November and Korea from 22 November.

方向并不一致：地中海在涨（过去一个月现货运价累涨约 23%，11 月 3 日当周远东—地中海 4,375 美元/FEU、北欧 3,595 美元/FEU），西非在涨（达飞 11 月 8 日起中国及港澳起运 PSS 最高 1,600 美元/箱），南美东反而有一项费用到期取消。别把“11 月都在涨”当成统一口径。The direction is not uniform: the Mediterranean is up about 23% over the past month, with Far East-Med at USD 4,375 per FEU and North Europe at USD 3,595 in the week of 3 November; West Africa is up, with CMA CGM adding a PSS from 8 November of up to USD 1,600 for China and Hong Kong origins; and one South America East Coast charge actually expired. November is not one uniform story.

供给端同时在收缩：德路里《集装箱运力周报》显示第 45–49 周 715 个计划航次中预计取消 56 班，取消率 8%，其中亚洲—北欧/地中海占 46%（约 26 班）。撤班没能托住价格，说明问题在需求端——舱位比货多。Supply is being cut at the same time: Drewry shows 56 blanked sailings out of 715 planned for weeks 45-49, an 8% cancellation rate, with Asia-North Europe/Med accounting for 46% (about 26 sailings). Blanking has not lifted rates, which points to the demand side: more slots than cargo.

东方海外（OOCL）10 月 29 日发布客户通告，推出中国—印尼 CIS4 新航线，首航 2026 年 11 月 22 日，港序为青岛—上海—南沙—雅加达—泗水—新加坡。华北、华东、华南三地直连印尼双港，不必再经新加坡中转接驳。OOCL announced CIS4, a new China-Indonesia service, on 29 October, first sailing 22 November 2026, rotating Qingdao-Shanghai-Nansha-Jakarta-Surabaya-Singapore. It gives North, East and South China a direct link to two Indonesian ports without a Singapore relay.

香港在做防守：运输及物流局局长陈美宝在立法会书面答复中表示，正检讨向内河货船收取的许可证费用，以维持香港港口竞争力——广州、深圳码头的抢货压力已经传导到政策层面。对华南货主，这意味着内河驳船经香港中转的成本结构可能在近期调整。Hong Kong is playing defence: transport secretary Chan Mei-po told the Legislative Council in a written reply that permit fees charged to river trade vessels are under review to keep the port competitive, as Guangzhou and Shenzhen terminals pull cargo away. For South China shippers the cost of river barge relays through Hong Kong may be about to shift.

亚洲区域内运价仍在涨：德路里 IACI 上涨 46 美元至 1,504 美元/40 尺。主要中国门户与中转港条件在改善，但区域内多港拥堵继续给运价加压。Intra-Asia rates keep climbing: Drewry's IACI rose USD 46 to USD 1,504 per 40ft. Conditions at major Chinese gateways and transshipment hubs are improving, but congestion elsewhere in the region continues to support pricing.

ONE 已停止在马士基 Qilin 航线上的舱位租赁，停租自消息披露当日起生效。Qilin 是马士基独立运营产品，投入 5 艘约 2,700TEU 船舶，港序上海—香港—悉尼—墨尔本—上海；ONE 于 2026 年 7 月以租舱方式加入，用自有品牌 Australia Express（AUX）转售舱位。租约一停，AUX 在这条线上就没有可售舱位了。ONE has stopped chartering slots on Maersk's Qilin service, effective from the day the news broke. Qilin is a Maersk-operated product with five ships of about 2,700 TEU, rotating Shanghai-Hong Kong-Sydney-Melbourne-Shanghai; ONE joined in July 2026 and resold slots under its own Australia Express (AUX) brand. With the charter ended, AUX has nothing to sell on this loop.

对货主是操作层面的事：此前通过 AUX 订的舱，渠道已经关闭，未出运的订单要马上确认是否仍有效、是否已转到马士基 Qilin 舱位。Qilin 本身不受影响，马士基继续独立运营，需要这条线可以直接向马士基订。另有一条利好：MSC 已确认欧洲—澳大利亚 Australia Express 航线恢复双向通行苏伊士，澳线航程回到常态。For shippers this is operational: AUX bookings are now a closed channel, and unshipped orders need immediate written confirmation on validity and whether they have moved to Maersk Qilin slots. Qilin itself is unaffected and can be booked direct with Maersk. One positive: MSC has confirmed its Europe-Australia Australia Express is back to two-way Suez transits, restoring normal Australia transit times.

澳洲监管也在收紧：澳大利亚以“多次伪造船员休息记录”为由，禁止一艘散货船挂靠澳洲港口 90 天。澳新线的港口国检查只会更严，散杂货与特种箱要预留合规检查时间。Australian enforcement is tightening as well: a bulk carrier has been banned from Australian ports for 90 days over repeated falsification of crew rest records. Port state control on the Australia and New Zealand trades will only get stricter — allow time for inspections on breakbulk and special equipment.

Overhaul 的 2026 年 Q3 墨西哥货盗分析显示：停放车辆被盗占 42.2%，同比上升 9 个百分点；运输途中被拦截降至 55.4%（-8.6 个百分点），两者差距缩到约 13 个百分点。作案地点从公路转向路边非正规停车场与非法加油点，76% 的案件集中在墨西哥中部（48%）与巴希奥制造业带（28%）。Overhaul's Q3 2026 Mexico analysis shows theft from parked vehicles at 42.2% of incidents, up nine points year on year, while in-transit interceptions fell 8.6 points to 55.4% — the gap now about 13 points. The shift is toward roadside informal truck stops and illicit fuel sites, with 76% of incidents in central Mexico (48%) and the Bajío manufacturing belt (28%).

高发州：墨西哥州 22.5%、普埃布拉 15%、瓜纳华托 9.6%，三州合计 47%；圣路易斯波托西因连接巴希奥与东北部走廊，风险上升最快，东北部占比从 6% 升到 12%。时段上 61% 发生在 18:00–06:00，其中 00:00–06:00 占 31%（同比 +9 个百分点）。货类上食品饮料占 32.6%（+7.3 个百分点），电子占 6.1%（+1.4 个百分点）——电子案 94% 集中在中部、巴希奥与东北部，5 条高速占 73%，其中墨西哥城—萨尔蒂约 57D 占 23%。Hotspots: the State of Mexico at 22.5%, Puebla at 15% and Guanajuato at 9.6% — 47% combined — with San Luis Potosí rising fastest as the Bajío-northeast corridor, and the northeast's share up from 6% to 12%. Sixty-one percent of thefts occur between 18:00 and 06:00, a third of them between midnight and 06:00 (up nine points). By commodity, food and beverage is 32.6% (+7.3 points) and electronics 6.1% (+1.4); electronics theft is 94% concentrated in central, Bajío and northeast Mexico, with five highways accounting for 73% — Mexico City to Saltillo on 57D alone at 23%.

行业预计 Buen Fin、黑五与网一期间（11 月）货盗可能再增 9–11%，配送车辆被盗风险同步上升。对走墨西哥内陆段的货，停车安全已经成为和时效同等重要的变量。The industry expects theft to rise another 9-11% in November around Buen Fin, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with delivery vehicle theft rising too. For Mexico inland legs, parking security now matters as much as transit time.