航运市场周报 W47：华大系入 UFLPA 清单 · 232 机器人审查 · 黑海沉船与霍尔木兹水雷Freight Update W47: BGI on UFLPA List · Section 232 Robotics · Black Sea Sinking, Hormuz Mines

美东时间 10 月 28 日，美国国土安全部（DHS）在《联邦公报》发布公告，把华大基因、华大智造和深圳华大基因科技有限公司列入《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》（UFLPA）实体清单，10 月 29 日起生效。CBP 对清单实体货物适用「可反驳推定」，原则上不准入境，除非进口商提交「清晰且令人信服」的证据并通过供应链追溯核查。清单实体总数由此增至 190 家。On 28 October the US Department of Homeland Security published a Federal Register notice adding BGI Genomics, MGI Tech and Shenzhen BGI Technology to the UFLPA Entity List, effective 29 October. CBP applies a rebuttable presumption to goods from listed entities: entry is barred in principle unless the importer submits clear and convincing evidence and clears a supply-chain traceability review. The list now stands at 190 entities.

这次列单的实操意义不在「华大」本身，而在审查逻辑：UFLPA 是穿透式执法，即便成品在第三国加工，只要追溯出使用了清单实体的投入品，仍可能被扣；未被列名也不构成安全港。实验室设备、测序耗材、试剂，以及用这类设备生产出来的成品输美，布控概率会明显上升。The practical significance is less about BGI than about the enforcement logic. UFLPA looks through the chain: even where a finished good is processed in a third country, it can be detained if inputs from a listed entity are traced into it, and not being listed is no safe harbour. Detention risk rises for lab equipment, sequencing consumables, reagents and finished goods made with such equipment entering the US.

当地时间 10 月 28 日，特朗普签署总统公告，依据《1962 年贸易扩展法》第 232 条认定机器人、工业机械及其零部件进口构成国家安全威胁。公告当天不加税，而是要求商务部与 USTR 同贸易伙伴谈判，并在 180 天内（约 2027 年 4 月下旬）提交进展报告；谈不成则总统保留加征关税、设配额、收费等手段。范围覆盖可编程控制系统、数控机床、冲压设备等整机与零部件。On 28 October the US President signed a proclamation finding that imports of robots, industrial machinery and parts threaten national security under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. No duty was imposed that day: Commerce and USTR are directed to negotiate, with a progress report due within 180 days, around late April 2027, and tariffs, quotas or fees remain available if talks fail. Scope covers complete machines and components including programmable controls, CNC machine tools and press equipment.

对出口企业的现实影响是税率结构：MFN 3%–5% 叠加 301 的 7.5%–25%，再加一层潜在 232，综合税负可能到 30%–40%。更要紧的是 232 按品类、不按原产国征收——靠东南亚或墨西哥组装「借道」的老办法，在这个工具面前基本失效。The practical effect is the duty stack: 3-5% MFN plus Section 301 at 7.5-25%, plus a possible 232 layer, can reach 30-40% overall. More importantly, 232 attaches to the product category rather than the country of origin, so the familiar assemble-in-Southeast-Asia-or-Mexico workaround does not work against this instrument.

10 月 30 日，欧盟委员会在《官方公报》发布对原产中国 PET 纺粘无纺布的反倾销终裁，10 月 31 日生效，有效期 5 年，成员国直接适用。税率分四档：湖北优布 39.8%、常德天鼎丰 48.1%、天鼎丰及其他配合抽样企业 47.1%、其余中国出口商 48.1%。涉案产品为克重超 70 g/m²、厚度 0.5–1.8 mm、玻纤含量低于 30% 的粘合剂浸渍聚酯长丝片材，对应 CN 编码 ex 5603 13 90、5603 14 20、ex 5603 14 80。On 30 October the European Commission published its final anti-dumping determination on PET spunbond from China in the Official Journal: effective 31 October, valid five years, directly applicable in every member state. Rates run in four tiers: Hubei Youbu 39.8%, Changde Tiandingfeng 48.1%, Tiandingfeng and other sampled or cooperating producers 47.1%, and all other Chinese exporters 48.1%. The product is binder-impregnated polyester filament nonwoven above 70 g/m2, 0.5-1.8 mm thick with under 30% glass fibre, under CN codes ex 5603 13 90, 5603 14 20 and ex 5603 14 80.

数字背后是量：欧盟调查认定 2024 年中国出口该产品约 2.08 万–2.54 万吨、占其市场约 29%，2022 至 2025 年数量增长约 417%。对出口商而言，征税意味着进口端要按税额缴纳保证金——每吨数千欧元的资金占用，比税率本身更快压到现金流。The numbers behind those rates: the EU investigation put 2024 Chinese exports of the product at roughly 20,800-25,400 tonnes, about 29% of the market, with volumes up some 417% between 2022 and 2025. For exporters the duty means the importer posts a deposit equal to the duty, thousands of euros per tonne tied up, which bites into cash flow faster than the rate itself.

10 月 28 日中午，利比里亚籍集装箱船 CONTSHIP JET 在保加利亚专属经济区、卡利亚克拉角以东海域被三艘海上无人艇连续撞击，右舷破损起火、船体倾斜 20–30 度，船长下令弃船，18 名船员（14 名菲律宾籍、4 名乌克兰籍）全部获救，约 12 小时后船舶沉没。该船由希腊 Contships 管理、ZIM 租用，执行黎凡特—黑海快线，10 月 24 日自海法开往康斯坦察，船上共 421 个集装箱。Around midday on 28 October the Liberia-flagged boxship CONTSHIP JET was struck by three surface drone boats in Bulgaria's EEZ east of Cape Kaliakra. Her starboard side was holed and caught fire, the hull listed 20-30 degrees, the master ordered abandonment and all 18 crew (14 Filipino, 4 Ukrainian) were rescued; the ship sank about 12 hours later. Managed by Greece's Contships and chartered by ZIM on a Levant-Black Sea express loop, she sailed from Haifa on 24 October for Constanta with 421 containers aboard.

保加利亚海军通报船上载有燃料、锂电池等危险品，当地媒体报道逾 20 个集装箱落水、部分装有易燃气体与液体；船用燃油为轻柴油，五处海域取样初检未发现可见污染。放到更大盘面看：2026 年以来黑海已有逾 570 艘船舶遭袭、至少 40 名海员死亡，是当前对商船最危险的海域。The Bulgarian navy says the cargo included fuel and lithium batteries among other dangerous goods, and local media report more than 20 containers overboard, some holding flammable gases and liquids. Bunkers were gas oil and initial sampling at five sites found no visible pollution. Zoom out: more than 570 ships have been attacked in the Black Sea in 2026 with at least 40 seafarers killed, making it the most dangerous water for merchant shipping today.

10 月 29 日，巴拿马籍油轮 LOUISE 1 在阿曼海塞卜东北约 25 海里处被两枚附着式水雷击中：一艘小艇靠近左舷、在水线以上安装爆炸装置后引爆，机舱起火、船舶一度失去动力，27 名印度籍船员全部安全，火扑灭后恢复航行。同日利比里亚籍油轮 ARZANAH 也遭投射物袭击。自 9 月 29 日以来，IMO 记录的确认袭击已达至少 34 起。On 29 October the Panama-flagged tanker LOUISE 1 was hit by two limpet mines about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. A small boat came alongside her port side, fixed charges above the waterline and detonated them, setting the engine room alight and briefly leaving her without power; all 27 Indian crew were safe and she resumed sailing after the fire was out. The Liberian-flagged tanker ARZANAH was hit by a projectile the same day. The IMO has recorded at least 34 confirmed attacks since 29 September.

更值得注意的是执法口径变了。10 月 28 日 JMIC 第 016-26 号通告转发美方指引，明确对伊朗港口与海岸的封锁适用于所有船旗，即便载运中立货物或空载往返中立港口的商船，也可能被拦停、登临、搜查。同期伊朗 PGSA 的「不合规船舶」名单扩至 125 艘，并称 11 月 1 日起对长锦商船整个船队采取法律行动。战争险费率维持在船价的 5%–6%，个别情形达 6%–10%。The bigger change is enforcement posture. JMIC advisory 016-26 of 28 October, relaying US guidance, states that the blockade of Iranian ports and coastline applies to all flags, and that ships carrying neutral cargo or sailing in ballast between neutral ports may be stopped, boarded and searched. Iran's PGSA non-compliance list has grown to 125 vessels, with legal action threatened against Sinokor's entire fleet from 1 November. War-risk premiums sit at 5-6% of hull value, reaching 6-10% in some cases.

10 月下旬起，达飞、马士基、赫伯罗特密集发布非洲与印度洋方向旺季附加费（PSS），覆盖东非、南非、西非多条航线，生效日集中在 10 月底至 11 月上旬，多数标注「直至另行通知」。东非方向：马士基 11 月 9 日起中国／中国香港至肯尼亚 1000/2000 美元（20 尺／40 尺及 45 尺）、达累斯萨拉姆 1200/2000 美元；达飞 11 月 1 日起 300 美元/TEU；赫伯罗特 11 月 1 日起 800 美元/TEU。From late October, CMA CGM, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have issued a cluster of peak-season surcharges on Africa and Indian Ocean lanes covering East Africa, South Africa and West Africa, effective between late October and early November and mostly marked until further notice. East Africa: Maersk from 9 November charges China and Hong Kong to Kenya USD 1,000/2,000 (20ft, 40ft and 45ft) and to Dar es Salaam USD 1,200/2,000; CMA CGM from 1 November USD 300/TEU; Hapag-Lloyd from 1 November USD 800/TEU.

南非与印度洋更陡：马士基远东至南非、毛里求斯 PSS 由 250/500 美元上调至 1000/2000 美元，涨幅 300%；赫伯罗特 11 月 3 日起至德班、开普敦 500 美元/TEU。西非分区计价：达飞 10 月 22 日起中非区 350、南非洲 550、北非区 250 美元/TEU（科纳克里维持 200），马士基 10 月 26 日起 800/1600 美元，赫伯罗特 10 月 25 日起 400/800 美元/TEU。South Africa and the Indian Ocean are steeper still: Maersk lifts its Far East to South Africa and Mauritius PSS from 250/500 to 1,000/2,000, a 300% rise, while Hapag-Lloyd charges USD 500/TEU to Durban and Cape Town from 3 November. West Africa is priced by zone: CMA CGM from 22 October at USD 350 for central, 550 for southern and 250 for northern Africa per TEU with Conakry unchanged at 200; Maersk from 26 October at USD 800/1,600; Hapag-Lloyd from 25 October at USD 400/800 per TEU.

10 月 30 日，上海航运交易所 SCFI 报 3,687.35 点，较上期涨 6.01 点；CCFI 报 1,881.82 点，涨 0.3%。德鲁里 10 月 29 日 WCI 反向回落 3% 至 4,429 美元/FEU：上海—洛杉矶 7,514 美元（-6%）、上海—纽约 9,631 美元（-5%）、上海—鹿特丹 3,686 美元（+1%）、上海—热那亚 4,151 美元（持平）。下周跨太平洋宣布 6 班空班（本周 5 班），NRF 预计 11 月美国海运进口环比降 11%。The Shanghai Shipping Exchange put SCFI at 3,687.35 on 30 October, up 6.01 points, with CCFI at 1,881.82 (+0.3%). Drewry's WCI for 29 October moved the other way, down 3% to USD 4,429 per FEU: Shanghai-Los Angeles USD 7,514 (-6%), Shanghai-New York USD 9,631 (-5%), Shanghai-Rotterdam USD 3,686 (+1%) and Shanghai-Genoa flat at USD 4,151. Six blank sailings are announced for the transpacific next week against five this week, and the NRF expects US ocean imports to fall 11% month on month in November.

政策面有一条容易被忽略的利好：USTR 10 月 23 日提出把针对中国相关船舶的港口费暂停再延长两个月，从 11 月 10 日延至 2027 年 1 月 9 日，意见征询 10 月 30 日 17:00（美东）截止，预计 11 月上旬定稿。暂停期内，中国实体拥有或运营的船舶、中国建造船舶、外国建造汽车船，以及中国岸桥与装卸设备的关税均不产生责任——但 1 月 10 日之后是否恢复、按哪一档费率恢复，仍是空白。One policy item is easy to miss and it helps: on 23 October USTR proposed extending the suspension of Section 301 port fees on China-linked vessels by two months, from 10 November to 9 January 2027, with comments closing on 30 October at 17:00 Eastern and a final decision expected in early November. During the suspension no liability accrues on vessels owned or operated by Chinese entities, Chinese-built ships or foreign-built vehicle carriers, nor duties on Chinese cranes and cargo-handling equipment. Whether fees resume after 10 January, and at which step of the schedule, remains unresolved.