航运市场周报 W46：美欧加关税齐发 · LA/LB 罢工预警 · 华南老码头停业Freight Update W46: US/EU/Canada Duties · LA/LB Strike Warning · South China Terminal Closes

美东时间 10 月 28 日，美国商务部在《联邦公报》发布对华厢式拖车（van trailers）及其子组件的反倾销、反补贴终裁税令，两税叠加后中国产品适用税率约 265.61%，自发布之日起生效。若货载再叠加 Section 232 钢铝关税，综合税负可能超过 300%。车架、底盘、车轴等子组件同样落在征税范围内。On 28 October the US Commerce Department published in the Federal Register the final AD/CVD duty orders on van trailers and their subassemblies from China, with combined rates of about 265.61%, effective the same day. With Section 232 steel and aluminium duties stacked on top, the total burden can exceed 300%. Frames, chassis and axles are all within the scope.

北美重货、大件、散件组装（SKD）运输的合规成本整体抬升——10 月中旬已有对卡车车厢盖（tonneau covers）双反终裁最高 249.52% 的另一案，公路装备类目的对美税负正在案案相连。散件出口再在海外组装的模式，也可能触发反规避调查。Compliance costs for heavy-cargo, oversize and SKD shipments to North America keep climbing — mid-October already brought a separate final order on truck bed covers up to 249.52%, and highway-equipment cases are stacking up. Knocked-down export with overseas assembly may invite anti-circumvention action.

当地时间 10 月 27 日，加拿大边境服务局（CBSA）对原产中国的无铠装建筑电缆作出反倾销与反补贴最终肯定性裁定，税率区间 28.3%–135.5%，较初裁阶段的 40.7%–225.9% 明显下调，但多数企业仍面临较高税负。注意程序节点：目前仅为 CBSA 裁定，需待加拿大国际贸易法庭（CITT）损害终裁后，关税才会正式开征。On 27 October the Canada Border Services Agency made final affirmative dumping and subsidy findings on unarmoured building cable from China, at 28.3-135.5% — well down from the preliminary 40.7-225.9%, though most firms still face heavy rates. Note the process point: these are CBSA findings only; duties become payable after the Canadian International Trade Tribunal issues its final injury ruling.

对出口商的操作含义有两层：CITT 终裁前出运的货物暂不征税，窗口期可以合理利用；但法庭推翻 CBSA 税率结论的先例极少，按"很快开征"做生产与出货排期才稳妥。加拿大 2025 年以来已连续对华电缆、钢管、铝材等多类产品采取双反措施，建材线的合规风险在系统上升。Two implications for exporters: cargo shipped before the CITT ruling is not yet dutiable — a window to use sensibly — but the tribunal rarely overturns CBSA margins, so plan production and shipping on the assumption duties start soon. Canada has pursued AD/CVD actions on cables, steel pipe and aluminium repeatedly since 2025; compliance risk on the building-materials lane is rising across the board.

欧盟委员会 10 月 26 日在《欧盟官方公报》公告：对原产于中国、韩国、墨西哥及中国台湾省的某些聚氯乙烯（PVC）产品实施海关登记措施，自 10 月 27 日起生效、覆盖全部成员国。海关登记是欧盟反倾销的追溯机制：若最终裁定倾销与损害成立，据报道拟征税率最高约 68% 的关税可自登记之日（10 月 27 日）起追溯征收。The European Commission announced in the Official Journal on 26 October that certain PVC products from China, South Korea, Mexico and Chinese Taiwan are placed under customs registration, effective 27 October across all member states. Registration is the EU mechanism for retroactive duties: if the investigation ends with affirmative findings, the reported duties of up to about 68% can be levied from the registration date.

这意味着登记期间出运到欧盟的涉案货物，最终可能要补缴自 10 月 27 日起的关税——账面"暂不征税"不等于最终免税。墨西哥、韩国产地的同类产品同样被登记，想通过第三国转口规避的路径同样在监控范围内。In practice, goods in scope arriving during the registration period may later owe duties accrued from 27 October — no duty today is not the same as duty-free at the end. Like products from Mexico and Korea are registered too, so re-routing through third countries stays squarely within the watch list.

10 月 23 日，澳大利亚反倾销委员会公告：对原产于中国、马来西亚的玻璃棉保温产品（batts、切割件、卷材，密度通常 6–48 kg/m³、厚度 50mm 及以上，用于建筑热/声保温）发起反倾销与反补贴调查。这是继 10 月 15 日对华铝制门窗开征最高 73.3% 临时双反后，澳洲一个月内对华建材采取的又一动作。On 23 October the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission initiated dumping and subsidy investigations into glass wool insulation (batts, cut pieces and rolls, typically 6-48 kg/m3 density, 50mm and thicker) from China and Malaysia. It follows the provisional duties of up to 73.3% on Chinese aluminium windows and doors from 15 October — the second China building-materials action within a month.

调查期内（通常为立案前 12 个月）有对澳出口的企业将进入抽样与核查名单；未应诉企业大概率被适用最高税率。澳洲本地产业近年多次得手，建材类目的审查趋于常态化，价格申报过低、编码错报都可能引来追溯。Firms that exported during the investigation period (usually the 12 months before initiation) enter the sampling and verification pool; non-cooperating exporters face the maximum rate. With local industry petitions succeeding repeatedly, scrutiny of building materials is now routine — under-declared values or misclassified codes invite retroactive exposure.

洛杉矶/长滩港约 250 名港口保安工人（watchmen）可能于 11 月 1 日罢工，雇主方警告一旦罢工将波及 8 个码头——超过全美最繁忙港口综合体一半的作业量。保安岗位虽不直接装卸，但闸口核验与安保流程停摆会拖慢整码头通行。此前 10 月 30 日全球 113 个港口码头工人同步举行反战停工示威，也短时影响部分作业。About 250 port security workers (watchmen) at Los Angeles/Long Beach may walk out on 1 November; employers warn a stoppage would hit eight terminals handling more than half the volume of the busiest US container complex. Security posts do not work the cranes, but gate checks and security processes stopping would slow entire terminals. A one-day global anti-war stoppage across 113 ports on 30 October added brief disruptions.

叠加风险在内陆：创纪录货量+铁路车皮短缺，近 3.57 万个进口重箱在 LA/LB 等待上火车，IPI 内陆分拨明显放缓。罢工若成真，堆场密度将快速上升，提箱与还空都会排队。The bigger risk is inland: record volumes plus railcar shortages leave nearly 35,700 import containers waiting for on-dock trains at LA/LB, slowing IPI distribution. A strike would send yard density up quickly, queuing both pickups and empty returns.

墨西哥全国卡车司机罢工波及 19 个州的高速公路与货运流动后，行业组织与联邦政府达成协议：将举行 4 轮正式谈判。司机的核心诉求是公路安全——针对货运司机的暴力抢劫与凶案持续高发，罢工期间多条干线被迫绕行或停运。After a nationwide strike disrupted highways and freight across 19 Mexican states, trucking organizations agreed to four negotiating sessions with federal officials. The core demand is road safety — violent robbery and murder of drivers remain rampant — and several trunk routes saw detours or stoppages during the action.

谈判结果难以快速兑现安全改善，短期内墨西哥内陆段的扰动仍会反复。对门到门（尤其 DDP 到墨西哥城、蒙特雷等内陆点）的货物，末端派送是当前最大的不确定环节。Talks will not deliver safety overnight, so inland-Mexico disruption is likely to recur. For door-to-door moves — especially DDP into Mexico City, Monterrey and other inland points — last-mile delivery is now the most uncertain leg.

当地时间 10 月 25 日 17:30，TUI 邮轮 Mein Schiff 3 在风暴 Manja 强风中离港时失控，撞上停泊于不来梅哈芬集装箱码头的 MSC Victorine（IMO 9946867，2023 年广船国际建造，16,520 TEU）：后者船体水线上方出现约 10 米裂口、集装箱导轨变形。三艘涉事船被禁止离港待检，无人伤亡、未发生进水。At about 17:30 on 25 October the TUI cruise ship Mein Schiff 3 lost control while departing Bremerhaven in Storm Manja and struck the berthed MSC Victorine (IMO 9946867, built 2023 at Guangzhou Shipyard International, 16,520 TEU), tearing a roughly 10-metre hole above the waterline and deforming container guides. All three vessels involved are under departure bans pending inspection; no injuries and no water ingress.

该轮部署在 MSC 亚洲—北欧 SWAN/FE6 航线，本航次西行挂靠釜山—宁波—上海—厦门—盐田—新加坡后抵达欧洲，原计划驶往汉堡。港口当局要求检查完成前不得卸船作业——船上有货暂时无法提离，该轮后续航次与船期衔接也存在延误风险。The vessel operates on MSC's Asia-North Europe SWAN/FE6 service and had called Busan, Ningbo, Shanghai, Xiamen, Yantian and Singapore en route to Europe, with Hamburg next planned. Port authorities barred discharge until inspections complete — cargo aboard cannot be lifted yet, and her subsequent voyages and connections face delay risk.

佛山市顺德区容奇港集装箱码头有限公司正式发布《暂停营业通知》：因经营战略优化调整，码头自 2026 年 12 月 1 日零时起全面暂停营业，终止全部港口装卸、仓储、船舶服务等对外经营业务。这家运营近 40 年的老牌内河码头，是珠江西岸顺德及周边外贸货物的重要驳船支线节点。Foshan Shunde Rongqi Port Container Terminal has formally announced that, for business-strategy reasons, it will suspend all operations — loading, storage and vessel services — from 00:00 on 1 December 2026. Operating for nearly 40 years, the inland terminal has been a key barge feeder node for export cargo in western Pearl River Delta and Shunde.

直接影响：原经容奇港中转的支线驳船计划需要改道，顺德、中山、江门方向的货主将改用周边港区或改拖车直拖深圳/南沙；仓储在库货物需要在停业前完成转仓或出运。The immediate impact: barge feeder plans via Rongqi must be re-routed — shippers in Shunde, Zhongshan and Jiangmen will shift to nearby terminals or switch to direct trucking to Shenzhen or Nansha; goods stored at the port need transfer or shipment before the closure.

中远海运港口 10 月 27 日公布的 9 月运营数据：全球码头组合完成集装箱吞吐量 1104 万 TEU，同比增长 15.7%；前三季度累计 9391 万 TEU，同比增长 8.5%，其中海外码头贡献约三分之一。对比交通运输部 10 月 26 日发布的前三季度全国港口集装箱吞吐量 2.8 亿标箱、同比仅增 4.5%。COSCO Shipping Ports reported on 27 October that its global terminal throughput hit 11.04 million TEU in September, up 15.7% year on year, with 93.91 million TEU for the first nine months (+8.5%) and overseas terminals contributing about a third. By contrast, national port container throughput for the first three quarters was 280 million TEU, up just 4.5% (MOT data of 26 October).

两组数据的落差说明产能与货源在分化：头部码头商靠海外布局维持高增长，国内码头整体增速放缓但作业效率稳定。对货主的实际含义是——旺季国内主要码头的操作能力仍有保障，真正的瓶颈在船期与内陆转运，而不是码头卸船。The gap shows capacity and cargo diverging: top terminal operators sustain growth via overseas expansion while domestic port growth cools yet operations stay efficient. For shippers the practical takeaway: major Chinese terminals can still handle peak volumes — the real bottlenecks are vessel schedules and inland connections, not berth productivity.

2027 年农历新年比 2026 年提前 11 天（2 月上旬即到），物流商 Seko Logistics 提醒自华采购的货主：现在起把采购订单前置、海运舱位至少提前 4 周确认。春节前 4-6 周是传统的出货高峰，舱位、拖车与报关资源都会阶段性紧张，运价同步走高。The 2027 Lunar New Year falls 11 days earlier than 2026 (early February). Seko Logistics urges buyers sourcing from China to bring purchase orders forward and confirm ocean bookings at least four weeks ahead of shipment. The 4-6 weeks before CNY is the traditional export rush, when space, drayage and customs resources tighten and rates climb.

今年的春节出货窗口还要叠加两个变量：美西 LA/LB 的罢工风险与内陆铁路积压尚未消化，华东港口刚经历台风季、延误传导需要数周重置。若 12 月网络没有理顺，春节前的延误将直接滚进 1 月高峰。This pre-CNY window stacks on two variables: the LA/LB strike risk and its inland rail backlog are not yet cleared, and East China ports are still resetting after the typhoon season with weeks of delay propagation. If the network is not untangled by December, those delays roll straight into the January peak.