航运市场周报 W45：美港口费延至 1 月 · 加税单调整 · 欧盟电商新规 · 马士基挂港大变Freight Update W45: Port-Fee Delay to January · Canada Tariff List · EU E-commerce Rules · Gemini Changes

上期周报曾提示"11 月 9 日到期、USTR 未发延期通知"的港口费悬念有了实质进展：据 S&P Global Platts 援引多位行业人士消息，预计再延长约两个月至 2027 年 1 月 10 日。gCaptain 同期报道 USTR 已提出延长暂停至 2027 年 1 月的方案。截至发稿 USTR 尚未发布正式通知，需以官方文件为准。该费用源于 301 调查：2025 年 10 月 14 日起对中国关联船舶征收港口服务费，中美同月在吉隆坡磋商后各自暂停一年。The US port-fee suspension on Chinese-linked vessels, due to expire on 9 November 2026, is expected to be extended by about two months to 10 January 2027, according to multiple industry sources cited by S&P Global Platts; gCaptain separately reported that USTR has proposed extending the suspension into January 2027. No formal notice has been published yet. The fees stem from the Section 301 action effective 14 October 2025, paused for one year by both sides after the Kuala Lumpur talks.

费用标准回顾：中国实体拥有或运营的船舶每净吨 50 美元并逐年递增；非中国运营商运营的中国建造船舶按每净吨 18 美元或每卸货集装箱 120 美元取高；非美国建造的滚装船每净吨 14 美元。LNG 船、空载压载船、装载煤炭谷物等出口散货的船舶可豁免。延期动因之一是美国煤炭出口商的成本压力——重新收费会推高美国出口运输成本，与扩大对华出口的目标相冲突。Rate recap: USD 50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or operated vessels, rising yearly; USD 18 per net ton or USD 120 per discharging container (whichever higher) for Chinese-built ships on non-Chinese operators; USD 14 per net ton for non-US-built ro-ro carriers. LNG carriers, ballast legs and coal/grain export loadings are exempt. One driver of the extension is cost pressure on US coal exporters — reinstating fees would raise US export logistics costs against the goal of selling more to China.

特朗普 10 月 23 日签署公告，自 10 月 30 日起调整依据《1930 年关税法》第 338 条对加拿大进口征收的 50% 关税：胶合板、部分工业机械、特定包装与纸制品等移出征税范围；同时新增可可粉、地毯、空调器等品类。此前 7 月首批覆盖约 200 亿美元加拿大进口，8 月谈判破裂后生效，加方 9 月起对等反制。A proclamation signed on 23 October reshapes the 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian imports from 30 October: plywood, certain industrial machinery, and selected packaging and paper materials come off the list, while cocoa powder, carpets and air conditioners are added. The first tranche in July covered about USD 20 billion of Canadian imports; talks collapsed in August and Canada retaliated in September.

同一周，Liberty Justice Center 代表食品进口商 Gellert Global Group 向美国国际贸易法院起诉，主张第 338 条的适用不满足法定要求，请求停征并退还已征税款——若胜诉，整个 50% 加税体系都可能被推翻。清单"一进一出"的调整说明该体系仍在快速变动，任何按加拿大方向备货的进口商都不能按上月的清单想当然。In the same week the Liberty Justice Center, for food importer Gellert Global Group, sued at the Court of International Trade arguing Section 338 was misapplied, seeking a halt to collection and refunds — a win could unwind the entire 50% regime. The back-and-forth list edits show how fast this framework moves: no importer shipping from Canada should assume last month's list still applies.

美东时间 10 月 20 日，USITC 公告对华"火花点火非道路用立式轴发动机"（排量 99cc 至不满 225cc）五年期日落复审作出肯定性终裁，双反税令延续。反倾销税率 316.88%–541.75%，反补贴 2.84%–10.46%，叠加最高 545.94%。涉案 HS 编码包括 8407.90.1010、8409.91.9990、8433.11.0050/0060、8424.30.9000 等，主要用于手推式割草机等户外动力设备，气缸、曲轴、化油器等子总成同样征税。On 20 October the USITC announced a final affirmative sunset review on spark-ignited, non-road vertical-shaft engines from China (99cc to below 225cc), continuing the orders for five years. Dumping margins run 316.88% to 541.75% with countervailing rates of 2.84% to 10.46% — up to 545.94% combined. HS codes include 8407.90.1010, 8409.91.9990, 8433.11.0050/0060 and 8424.30.9000; subassemblies such as cylinders, crankshafts and carburettors are also covered.

反规避执法同步收紧：2022 年裁定 60–99cc 排量段属"轻微改变"纳入税令；今年 9 月 24 日商务部再裁定宗申两款 5C65M0、BC70M0 型号为"后期开发商品"构成规避。即便在第三国组装，核心部件产自中国仍可能被认定原产中国。Anti-circumvention enforcement keeps widening: the 60-99cc band was swept in back in 2022, and on 24 September Commerce ruled two Zongshen models (5C65M0, BC70M0) to be later-developed products circumventing the orders. Even third-country assembly does not help if core parts originate in China.

10 月 15 日，新加坡旗集装箱船 ESPIRITO SANTO EXPRESS（IMO 9793923，载箱 11,923 TEU）在新加坡驶往巴西桑托斯途中起火，随后在南大西洋特里斯坦-达库尼亚岛西北约 975 英里处弃船漂流。该轮由 Seaspan 持有、赫伯罗特运营，服务于亚洲-南美东 AS2 航线，MSC（Ipanema）与 ONE（SX1）共舱——事故航段曾挂靠上海、宁波、深圳蛇口、香港，赫伯罗特、MSC、ONE 三家提单的货主都可能受影响。On 15 October the Singapore-flagged ESPIRITO SANTO EXPRESS (IMO 9793923, 11,923 TEU) caught fire en route from Singapore to Santos and was later abandoned adrift about 975 nm northwest of Tristan da Cunha. Seaspan-owned and Hapag-Lloyd-operated on the Asia-South America East AS2 service with MSC (Ipanema) and ONE (SX1) slots, the vessel had called Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou and Hong Kong on this voyage — B/L holders of all three carriers may be affected.

货主最需要关注的是共同海损（General Average）：赫伯罗特尚未宣布共损，但一旦启动救助拖带，宣布的可能性不小——届时货主须提供共损担保函才能提货，货物即使完好也可能被扣在目的港。安联报告显示全球集装箱船火灾约每 17 天一起，误报漏报危险品是主要诱因。The key word for cargo owners is General Average: Hapag-Lloyd has not declared it yet, but once salvage and towage start, a declaration is quite likely — cargo then needs an GA security to be released, and undamaged boxes can still be held at destination. Allianz puts container-ship fires at one every 17 days on average, with misdeclared dangerous goods the leading cause.

欧盟对跨境电商的系统性收紧分三步走：7 月 1 日起 150 欧元以下低值商品关税豁免取消，按商品关税分类征收每项 3 欧元临时固定关税（至 2028 年 7 月，之后恢复正常税率）；11 月 1 日起每条申报行加收 2 欧元海关统一处理费，原则不可退（退货也不退）；同日起商品识别码 PID 强制申报——商家 SKU（M-PID）与工厂货号（NS-PID）必填，有条码（EAN/GTIN）也必须申报，发票备注无效，缺失或错误可能导致申报被驳回、扣货甚至退运。The EU squeeze on cross-border e-commerce lands in three steps: from 1 July the duty-free threshold below EUR 150 went, replaced by a EUR 3 temporary flat duty per commodity classification (until July 2028, then normal rates); from 1 November a EUR 2 customs processing fee applies per declaration line, non-refundable even on returns; and the same day Product Identification Data becomes mandatory — seller SKU (M-PID) and factory part number (NS-PID) compulsory, EAN/GTIN where available — with invoice notes no longer sufficient; errors risk rejection, seizure or return.

成本逻辑变了：费用按"申报行"而非"包裹"计，一票混装多 SKU 的包裹可能叠加数笔关税与处理费；15 欧元以下小件最受冲击，固定税费可能吃掉售价的大头。同时 EU ETS 2026 年起航运需承担 100% 碳配额成本，碳附加费已从可选变为刚性。The cost logic changed: fees accrue per declaration line, not per parcel, so a multi-SKU box can stack several duties and processing fees, and sub-EUR 15 items are hit hardest — fixed charges can devour the ticket price. On top, EU ETS makes shipping carry 100% of carbon quota costs in 2026, turning carbon surcharges from optional to structural.

欧盟委员会 10 月 21 日公告废止对华太阳能玻璃反倾销与反补贴税，10 月 22 日生效。该措施 2014 年 5 月起实施，反吸收上调后反倾销 17.5%–75.4%、反补贴 3.2%–17.1%，叠加最高 84.2%。废止的直接原因：欧盟本土最后一家规模化太阳能玻璃厂 GMB 已于 2025 年 7 月破产，调查期间中国产品在欧盟市场份额仅约 3%，措施已无保护对象。The European Commission announced on 21 October the repeal of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese solar glass, effective 22 October. In force since May 2014 and raised by anti-absorption measures to 17.5-75.4% dumping plus 3.2-17.1% countervailing (up to 84.2% combined), the measures fell because the last sizeable EU producer, GMB, went bankrupt in July 2025 — with Chinese product at roughly 3% of the EU market, there was no industry left to protect.

退税窗口值得注意：自 2025 年 7 月 22 日（第二次日落复审启动日）以来已缴纳的双反关税均可申请退还（不计利息）。涉案 CN 编码 ex 7007 19 80（TARIC 7007 19 80 12/18/80/85），光伏玻璃约占组件成本 12%–18%。但整体合规环境并未放松：中国已自 4 月起取消光伏产品出口退税，CBAM 碳关税收费期已开始，使用中国逆变器的项目 5 月起禁止申请欧盟补贴。Note the refund window: duties paid since 22 July 2025 (the second sunset review start date) are refundable without interest. The product falls under CN ex 7007 19 80 (TARIC ...12/18/80/85), and solar glass is roughly 12-18% of module cost. The wider compliance picture has not loosened, though: China scrapped export VAT rebates on PV products from April, CBAM has entered its charging phase, and projects using Chinese inverters are barred from EU subsidies from May.

达飞 11 月 1–14 日亚洲至地中海/北非 FAK 上调：西地中海、亚得里亚海、东地中海、黑海 20/40 尺柜均涨 300 美元，北非 20 尺涨 100、40 尺涨 200，40 尺至北非最高 7100 美元。MSC 同期远东至西地中海/亚得里亚海大柜涨 500 美元，东地中海/黑海涨 300，北非各点涨 500，北欧维持不变。报价均不含 THC、安保费及碳附加费（MSC 的碳费另计）。CMA CGM lifts Asia-Med/North Africa FAK on 1-14 November: +USD 300 per 20ft and 40ft to the West Med, Adriatic, East Med and Black Sea, +100/+200 to North Africa, with the top rate at USD 7,100 per 40ft to North Africa. MSC matches: +USD 500 per FEU to the West Med and Adriatic, +300 to the East Med and Black Sea, +500 across North African points, North Europe unchanged. All exclude THC, security and carbon surcharges.

对澳新（我司主力航线）重点：马士基 11 月 1 日起对亚洲（含中国大陆/港台、日韩、东南亚）出口大洋洲加收 PSS——澳大利亚、巴新、所罗门：20 尺 +500 美元、40 尺 +1000 美元；新西兰、斐济等：20 尺 +300、40 尺 +600；仅适用于非 SPOT 订舱。背景是德路里 WCI 本周整体上涨 2% 至每 40 尺 4585 美元，上海-洛杉矶 8007 美元、上海-纽约 10166 美元，美国进口需求强劲支撑跨太平洋运价。Focus on Oceania (our core lane): from 1 November Maersk adds a PSS on Asia-Oceania (from mainland China/HK/TW, Japan, Korea, SE Asia) — to Australia, PNG and Solomon Islands +USD 500 per 20ft and +1,000 per 40ft; to New Zealand, Fiji and Pacific islands +300/+600 — non-SPOT bookings only. Context: Drewry's WCI rose 2% this week to USD 4,585 per FEU, Shanghai-LA at 8,007 and Shanghai-NY at 10,166, with strong US import demand underpinning trans-Pacific rates.

Alphaliner 统计十大船司网络：46 条远东-欧洲直达航线中 24 条已恢复经红海通行，占总部署运力 63%（地中海方向 70%、北欧方向 58%），经苏伊士货量超 550 万 TEU（理论上限 870 万），其中达飞一家占 130 万。HMM、ONE、阳明宣布回归后，前十大中将只剩长荣与以星继续绕行好望角（以星被胡塞明确点名）。部分航线去程走红海、回程仍绕好望角对冲风险。Alphaliner's survey of the ten largest networks finds 24 of 46 direct Far East-Europe services back through the Red Sea — 63% of deployed capacity (70% on Med services, 58% on North Europe), with Suez transits above 5.5m TEU of a possible 8.7m, CMA CGM alone at 1.3m. Once HMM, ONE and Yang Ming follow through, only Evergreen and Zim remain on the Cape routing (Zim having been named by the Houthis). Several loops transit Suez westbound but still round the Cape eastbound as a hedge.

经济账是重要推手：新加坡 VLSFO 现货 881 美元/吨、同比上涨 97%，绕行好望角多烧的燃油已变得非常昂贵。马士基前三季度经苏伊士货运量 2330 万吨（去年同期 700 万吨），COO 明确目标是 2027 年 3 月前所有航线恢复红海。运力释放将持续压制欧线运价——船司则用空班对冲：欧线下周已宣布 8 个空班（本周 2 个）。Economics drive the return: VLSFO in Singapore trades at USD 881/t, up 97% year on year, making the Cape detour's extra bunkers painfully expensive. Maersk moved 23.3m tonnes via Suez in the first nine months (7m a year earlier) and targets full Red Sea return by March 2027. Released capacity will keep pressing Asia-Europe rates — which carriers counter with blank sailings: eight announced for next week, up from two.

马士基 10 月 19 日公布 Gemini 网络新一轮调整，11 月 15 日起陆续生效：新增亚欧线 AE18（赫伯罗特编号 SE5），挂港顺序上海—厦门—丹戎帕拉帕斯—阿尔赫西拉斯—丹吉尔—阿尔赫西拉斯—厦门，首航 Maersk Edirne 11 月 22 日自上海启航，承接原 AE2/AE12/AE11 在西地中海的部分功能；AE2 西行以鹿特丹替代丹吉尔（Moscow Maersk 11 月 15 日宁波首航）；AE11 新增阿曼萨拉拉、塞得港替代丹吉尔（Estelle Maersk 11 月 17 日上海首航）。On 19 October Maersk announced the next Gemini reshuffle, effective from 15 November: a new Asia-Europe loop AE18 (Hapag-Lloyd SE5) calling Shanghai — Xiamen — Tanjung Pelepas — Algeciras — Tanger Med — Algeciras — Xiamen, first sailing Maersk Edirne ex Shanghai on 22 November, absorbing coverage from AE2/AE12/AE11 in the West Med; AE2 swaps Tanger Med for Rotterdam (Moscow Maersk ex Ningbo 15 November); AE11 adds Salalah and replaces Tanger Med with Port Said (Estelle Maersk ex Shanghai 17 November).

对华南出货影响最直接的一条：AE19 的上海挂港调整为南沙并新增埃及达米埃塔（Ane Maersk 11 月 18 日新港首航）——珠三角出口获得更直挂选择，但长三角货主需要重新确认替代航线。此次调整是苏伊士复航后的网络重构，航线名称不变不等于挂港不变。The change hitting South China shippers most: AE19 swaps Shanghai for Nansha and adds Damietta (Ane Maersk ex Xinang 18 November) — a more direct option for the Pearl River Delta, but Yangtze Delta cargo needs a replacement routing confirmed. This is network restructuring after the Suez return: a service name staying the same does not mean the port rotation has.

华东拥堵本在好转：马士基通报中国东海岸港口待泊时间连续数周环比下降，德路里数据显示上海待泊从第 38 周的 97 小时降至第 42 周的 38 小时（同期全球平均 1.3 天）。但台风 Champi 10 月 23 日扫过台湾东北沿海，长江口引航一度暂停，浙江、福建及周边港口预计出现临时管制——7 周内第 4 个台风正在抵消船司的恢复成果。East China was recovering: Maersk reported week-on-week declines in waiting times along the coast, and Drewry data shows Shanghai waits down from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 in week 42 (global average 1.3 days). But Typhoon Champi swept past northeast Taiwan on 23 October, pilotage at the Changjiang Estuary was suspended, and temporary restrictions are expected across Zhejiang, Fujian and nearby ports — the fourth typhoon in seven weeks, eroding carriers' recovery gains.

德路里顾问提醒：关键在累计效应——船舶在始发港延误后到港次序错乱、错过泊位窗口，延误传导至欧洲。平静期恢复约需 5 周，旺季要 2 个月；若网络赶在春节前出货潮前没有重置，延误将直接滚入春节旺季。另一风险在累积：一旦延误叠加，欧洲港口的堆场压力将同步上升。Drewry's advisors flag the cumulative effect: ships delayed at origin arrive out of sequence and miss berth windows, pushing delays through to Europe. Recovery takes about five weeks in a quiet period, up to two at peak — and if the network does not reset before the pre-Lunar New Year rush, those delays roll straight into it, with European yard pressure rising in step.