航运市场周报 W44：澳线 73.3% 临时双反 · 欧线 10-19 涨价 · 盐田宁波跳港Freight Update W44: Australia 73.3% Duties · EU Hikes Oct 19 · Yantian/Ningbo Omissions

10 月 14 日，澳大利亚反倾销委员会发布第 2026/147 号公告，对原产于中国的铝制门窗作出反倾销肯定性初裁，自 10 月 15 日起以保证金形式征收临时反倾销税与反补贴税。反倾销税率为 0%–70.4%，反补贴税率为 0%–2.9%，两项叠加后最高可达 73.3%。涉案海关编码为 7610.10.00.12，窗组件最高 3.0 米、最宽 4.0 米，门组件最高 3.0 米、最宽 7.0 米，幕墙产品不在涉案范围内。On 14 October Australia's Anti-Dumping Commission issued notice 2026/147, making a preliminary affirmative dumping finding on aluminium windows and doors originating in China and imposing provisional anti-dumping and countervailing duties as securities from 15 October. Dumping margins run from 0% to 70.4% and countervailing duties from 0% to 2.9%, up to 73.3% combined. The goods fall under HS 7610.10.00.12; window assemblies up to 3.0m high and 4.0m wide and door assemblies up to 3.0m high and 7.0m wide are covered, while curtain walls are excluded.

税率按企业分层，差距极大。深圳市中盈建科控股的反倾销与反补贴税率均为 0；佛山市澳美家门窗 5.3%、广东科腾新材 12.1%；珠海翼鹏科技反倾销税率 51.6%；其他应诉出口商统一适用 24.4%；不合作及所有其他出口商则面临 70.4% 反倾销加 2.9% 反补贴的最高档。是否被认定为"合作出口商"直接决定税负。Rates are company-specific and spread wide. Shenzhen Zhongying Jianke Holding carries 0% on both counts; Foshan Aomeijia Doors and Windows 5.3%; Guangdong Keteng New Materials 12.1%; Zhuhai Yipeng Technology 51.6% dumping duty; other cooperating exporters 24.4%; and non-cooperating and all other exporters the top band of 70.4% dumping plus 2.9% countervailing. Whether a mill qualifies as a "cooperating exporter" drives the outcome.

市场体量不小：2024 年中国对澳铝制门窗出口约 3.73 亿美元；澳方调查期（2024 年 7 月–2025 年 6 月）本地市场规模约 28 亿澳元，中国产品占约 19%，本土产品占约 79%。案件仍在初裁阶段，终裁报告预计不晚于 2026 年 11 月 25 日提交工业与科学部长。The market is material: Chinese exports of aluminium windows and doors to Australia were about USD 373 million in 2024, and over the investigation period (July 2024 to June 2025) the Australian market was worth roughly AUD 2.8 billion, with Chinese product at about 19% and domestic product at about 79%. The case is still at the preliminary stage; the final report is due to the Minister for Industry and Science no later than 25 November 2026.

美东时间 10 月 14 日，美国商务部对原产于中国的卡车车厢盖（Truck Bed Covers）反补贴调查作出最终肯定性裁定，反补贴税率 11.60%–142.11%；叠加反倾销税后，中国出口商面临的合计税率最高达 249.52%，自 10 月 15 日生效。On 14 October US time the Department of Commerce issued a final affirmative countervailing determination on truck bed covers from China, with countervailing rates of 11.60% to 142.11%. Combined with the anti-dumping order already in place, the highest all-in rate reaches 249.52%, effective 15 October.

同一天《联邦公报》还公布了三类产品的措施进展：非重复充装钢瓶、无螺栓钢制货架通过日落复审，双反关税继续征收；黄原胶在反倾销行政复审中更新了部分企业的税率。也就是说，这一轮不是单一品类的事件，而是一批中国出口品类同时被锁定在高税率区间。The same day's Federal Register also carried three more actions: non-refillable steel cylinders and boltless steel shelving kept their AD/CVD orders after sunset reviews, and xanthan gum had rates updated for some producers in an administrative review. This is not a single-product event — a whole set of Chinese export categories is being locked into high duty bands at once.

CBP 宣布将国际邮政小包裹新海关申报流程的强制实施日期推迟 90 天，由原定 2026 年 10 月 22 日延至 2027 年 1 月 20 日，在此之前现行申报流程不变。新流程要求国际邮件以电子方式提交申报信息，并按情况提供海关保证金（Customs Bond），主要适用于涉及 201、232 或 301 条款关税的邮政货物，以及 FDA 等机构监管的商品。CBP has pushed the mandatory start of its new customs entry process for international postal parcels back 90 days, from 22 October 2026 to 20 January 2027; until then the current process stands. The new process requires electronic advance data and, where applicable, a customs bond, and mainly covers postal shipments subject to Section 201, 232 or 301 duties and goods regulated by agencies such as the FDA.

延期不是转向。CBP 已于 10 月 8 日在《联邦公报》发布《Low-Value Shipments》拟议规则，计划调整 2,500 美元以下货物的非正式报关要求，并新设邮政渠道的电子非正式报关类型，意见征集截至 2026 年 12 月 7 日。核心变化有三个：申报节点前移到进口当日或之前、数据颗粒度升到 10 位 HTSUS 加原产国加追踪号、保证金成为标配。The delay is not a reversal. On 8 October CBP published a proposed rule, Low-Value Shipments, in the Federal Register that would rework informal entry for goods valued at USD 2,500 or less and create a new electronic informal entry type for postal imports, with comments due by 7 December 2026. Three changes matter: declaration moves forward to on or before the day of import, data rises to 10-digit HTSUS plus country of origin plus tracking number, and a bond becomes standard.

对做直邮小包的卖家，成本结构会被重算：保证金保费、报关服务费、关税与 MPF 叠加，单票履约成本明显上升，低客单价铺货模式的价格优势会被削弱。欧盟也已在 2026 年 7 月取消 150 欧元以下包裹的关税豁免，低值包裹的"免税红利"在全球范围内同步收窄。For direct-to-consumer parcel sellers the cost structure gets recalculated: bond premiums, brokerage, duties and MPF stack up, per-parcel fulfilment cost rises, and the price advantage of low-ticket volume listing erodes. The EU removed its duty relief for parcels under EUR 150 in July 2026, so the low-value tax holiday is narrowing worldwide at the same time.

达飞、马士基、赫伯罗特、MSC 相继宣布自 10 月 19 日起上调亚洲至欧洲、地中海及北非方向 FAK 运价。赫伯罗特远东至北欧 20 尺 2,750 美元、40 尺 4,200 美元，西地中海 3,200/4,600 美元；MSC 北欧 3,150/4,500 美元，西地中海 3,750/4,500 美元，东地中海 3,800/4,800 美元，黑海 3,900/5,000 美元；达飞地中海及北非 20 尺 3,600–5,200 美元、40 尺 4,600–6,900 美元，执行期 10 月 19–31 日。CMA CGM, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have all announced FAK increases from 19 October on Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa. Hapag-Lloyd quotes USD 2,750/20' and 4,200/40' to North Europe and 3,200/4,600 to the western Mediterranean; MSC quotes 3,150/4,500 to North Europe, 3,750/4,500 to the western Mediterranean, 3,800/4,800 to the eastern Mediterranean and 3,900/5,000 to the Black Sea; CMA CGM quotes USD 3,600-5,200 per 20' and 4,600-6,900 per 40' to the Mediterranean and North Africa for 19-31 October.

宣涨与成交落差明显。马士基第 43 周上海至欧基大柜开舱价约 3,300 美元，折后实际成交约 3,100–3,150 美元，远低于 4,000 美元/FEU 的宣涨水平。10 月 9 日 SCFI 报 3,664.11 点、周涨 0.05%，其中远东至欧洲 2,274 美元/TEU、周涨 3.4%，但德路里 WCI 上海至鹿特丹周跌 2% 至 3,337 美元/FEU——指数在动，现货没跟上。Quoted levels and settled levels diverge. Maersk's week-43 opening rate Shanghai to North Europe was about USD 3,300 per FEU, settling around 3,100-3,150 after discounts, well below the USD 4,000 headline. The SCFI on 9 October was 3,664.11 points, up 0.05% on the week, with Far East to Europe at USD 2,274 per TEU, up 3.4%; but Drewry's WCI for Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 2% to USD 3,337 per FEU. The index moved; spot did not follow.

真正确定的是附加费。MSC 的碳限制附加费 20 美元/TEU 与碳复核附加费（北欧 88、地中海 128 美元/TEU）合计 108–148 美元/TEU，折 40 尺约 216–296 美元；自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起欧盟 ETS 要求航运承担 100% 排放配额成本，碳成本已从临时项变成长期刚性成本。另有海盗风险附加费与苏伊士附加费合计 91 美元/TEU。What is certain is the surcharges. MSC's carbon limitation surcharge of USD 20 per TEU plus a carbon review surcharge of USD 88 (North Europe) or 128 (Mediterranean) per TEU totals 108-148 per TEU, or roughly 216-296 per FEU. Since 1 January 2026 the EU ETS requires shipping to bear 100% of allowance costs, turning carbon from a temporary line into a structural one. Piracy risk and Suez surcharges add another USD 91 per TEU combined.

Xeneta 数据显示，2026 年 9 月全球集装箱班轮船期可靠性降至 27%，较 8 月下降 2 个百分点，平均延误时间升至 6 天，比二季度初增加 2.4 天。也就是说，9 月全球只有不到三成集装箱船按原计划到港。Xeneta data shows global container schedule reliability fell to 27% in September 2026, down 2 percentage points on August, with average delay rising to six days, 2.4 days more than at the start of the second quarter. Fewer than three in ten container ships arrived as planned in September.

分航线看，亚洲—欧洲航线准班率仅 4%，是主要干线中最差的一档；Gemini 联盟从 70% 掉到 34%。对进口商的实际含义很直接：给客户的交期承诺如果按"船期表上的天数"来做，九成会违约。By trade, Asia-Europe reliability was just 4%, the worst of the mainline trades, and the Gemini alliance fell from 70% to 34%. The practical meaning for importers is blunt: any delivery promise built on the published schedule will be broken about nine times out of ten on Asia-Europe.

10 月 12 日，以星连续发布两份客户通知。ZSL 服务的 MSC GREENWICH 9W 因服务退出，跳过盖梅、盐田、宁波、上海、釜山五个港口，货物先在新加坡卸船（预计 10 月 28 日抵达），再转接 MSC ANCHORAGE 6E 续运；该服务后续船期为新加坡 10 月 31 日、盖梅 11 月 3 日、盐田 11 月 8 日、宁波 11 月 11 日、上海 11 月 13 日、釜山 11 月 15 日。On 12 October ZIM issued two customer advisories. On the ZSL service, MSC GREENWICH 9W is withdrawing and will omit Cai Mep, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai and Busan; cargo discharges at Singapore around 28 October and connects to MSC ANCHORAGE 6E. Later ZSL sailings call Singapore 31 October, Cai Mep 3 November, Yantian 8 November, Ningbo 11 November, Shanghai 13 November and Busan 15 November.

ZMP 服务的 ZIM EMERALD 13E 因 ZMP 逐步退出、ZCP 接替运营，跳过青岛和宁波：发往马尼拉的中转货在上海卸船（预计 10 月 20 日），其余货物在釜山卸船（预计 10 月 22 日）。这已是 9 月以来第三、第四次调整——9 月 14 日 MSC ANSHIKA VI 596W 跳过盖梅与上海，10 月 8 日 JASPER 8E 跳过大铲湾与盖梅。On the ZMP service, ZIM EMERALD 13E omits Qingdao and Ningbo as ZMP is phased out in favour of ZCP: Manila-bound transhipment cargo discharges at Shanghai around 20 October and the rest at Busan around 22 October. This is the third or fourth such change since September — MSC ANSHIKA VI 596W omitted Cai Mep and Shanghai on 14 September, and JASPER 8E omitted Da Chan Bay and Cai Mep on 8 October.

背景是以星与 MSC 的合作框架及赫伯罗特收购以星的交易——后者预计 2027 年前后完成。过渡期内以星正把货量从 ZMP 等旧服务迁移到 ZCP 等新服务，挂港变更和中转路径调整会成为常态，而不是偶发事件。The backdrop is ZIM's alliance framework with MSC and Hapag-Lloyd's pending acquisition of ZIM, expected around 2027. Through the transition ZIM is migrating volume from older services such as ZMP to newer ones such as ZCP, so port omissions and re-routed transhipment will be routine rather than exceptional.

受台风"巴威""白海豚""沙德尔"接连影响形成的船舶积压已基本消化。截至 10 月 9 日，全港集装箱船舶平均待泊时间回落至约 1 天，恢复至正常水平，部分码头已实现到港即靠泊。台风期间累计完成 74 艘次船舶调整，其中改靠 56 艘次、两靠 18 艘次，同步优化调整 3 条集装箱航线。The vessel backlog built up by typhoons Bavi, Dolphin and Saudel has largely cleared. As of 9 October average container vessel waiting time at the port was back to about one day, with some terminals berthing ships on arrival. During the typhoon period the port made 74 vessel adjustments — 56 re-berthings and 18 double calls — and optimised three container services.

量还在涨：9 月全港集装箱吞吐量 427 万标箱，同比增长 11.5%、环比增长 15%，创月度历史新高；1–9 月累计 3,466.6 万标箱，同比增长 6.8%。日均作业量从 13 万标箱提升至 14.2 万标箱，国庆 7 天日均达到 14.5 万标箱；在泊作业效率较前 8 个月均值提升 5%，船舶非作业时间缩短至 70 分钟，比 2025 年全年平均少 34 分钟。Volumes keep climbing: September container throughput was 4.27 million TEU, up 11.5% year on year and 15% on the month, a monthly record, taking the January-September total to 34.666 million TEU, up 6.8%. Average daily handling rose from 130,000 to 142,000 TEU, and reached 145,000 TEU a day over the seven-day National Day holiday. Berth productivity improved 5% on the first eight months and non-operational time fell to 70 minutes, 34 minutes less than the 2025 average.

当地时间 10 月 9 日，巴拿马发生 7.6–7.7 级强震，震中位于埃雷拉省，震源深度约 10 公里。巴拿马运河管理局明确表示运河运营正常、船舶通行未受影响，仅太平洋一侧办公楼等设施轻微损坏，船闸、大坝等关键设施未发现影响通航的结构性问题；总统穆利诺公开表示运河"完全没有问题"。On 9 October local time a magnitude 7.6-7.7 earthquake struck Panama, centred in Herrera province at a depth of about 10km. The Panama Canal Authority said operations were normal and transits unaffected, with only minor damage to office buildings on the Pacific side and no structural issues at locks or dams; President Mulino said publicly that the canal was "completely fine".

港口层面影响更直接。巴拿马海事局 10 月 12 日公告，维拉瓜省的维达尔港、穆蒂斯港，博卡斯德尔托罗省的阿尔米兰特港，以及科克莱、埃雷拉、洛斯桑托斯三省的当地港口设施继续预防性关闭，直至另行通知；阿尔米兰特、穆蒂斯、佩德雷加尔三港仅办理船舶离港业务，装卸及其他服务均未恢复。巴尔博亚港维持正常运营。At port level the impact is more direct. A 12 October notice from the Panama Maritime Authority kept Puerto Vidal and Puerto Mutis in Veraguas, Puerto Almirante in Bocas del Toro, and local port facilities in Coclé, Herrera and Los Santos closed as a precaution until further notice. Almirante, Mutis and Pedregal are handling departures only, with no cargo operations or other services restored. Balboa is operating normally.

更需要注意的是叠加效应：受厄尔尼诺影响，运河自 2026 年 9 月起已将每日通行上限从 36 艘下调至 32 艘，新巴拿马型船闸降至 23 艘，吃水限制从 50 英尺降至 44 英尺，大型集装箱船每艘可能损失约 2,400 TEU 有效运力。再叠加霍尔木兹方向风险推高的跨洋需求，运河压力短期难解。The compounding effect matters more. Under El Niño the canal cut daily transits from 36 to 32 from September 2026, neopanamax lock slots to 23, and draft from 50 to 44 feet, costing a large container ship roughly 2,400 TEU of effective capacity. Add cross-ocean demand pushed up by Hormuz risk and the pressure does not lift soon.

美国方向，CBP 正在加强对进口商身份信息的审核。IOR 对应的主体信息必须真实准确并符合海关登记要求，身份信息不完整、不准确或无法核实的进口商登记可能被停用或注销。核查重点包括主体信息一致性（企业名称、注册地址、实际经营信息）、联系方式真实性、CBP Form 5106 是否准确完整、清关代理是否持有进口商签署的有效授权书（POA），以及发票、提单与申报资料中的主体信息是否冲突。On the US side CBP is tightening importer identity checks. The entity behind an Importer of Record number must be real, accurate and properly registered, and records that are incomplete, inaccurate or unverifiable may be deactivated or revoked. Checks focus on entity consistency (name, registered address, actual operations), validity of contact details, accuracy and completeness of CBP Form 5106, whether the broker holds a signed power of attorney, and whether entity details conflict across invoice, bill of lading and entry.

墨西哥方向，电子海关估价申报制度调整，提高了对货物交易价值及证明文件的要求：货值申报必须与商业发票、采购合同、实际交易价格相互对应，进口商可能被要求提供付款凭证、运输费用等支持材料，电子申报流程与责任分工应在发运前与当地清关代理确认。In Mexico, changes to the electronic customs valuation declaration raise the bar on transaction value and supporting documents: declared value must line up with the commercial invoice, purchase contract and actual price, importers may be asked for payment evidence and freight cost support, and the e-declaration process and division of responsibility should be confirmed with the local broker before shipment.

欧洲方向是更长期的制度改革：欧盟正在推进海关体系现代化，方向包括统一数据管理、加强风险识别、完善电商进口监管、提升成员国协作。当前实务要点仍是核实进口商 EORI、确保品名/HS/申报价值/原产地的准确性，以及符合 ICS2 等现行数据申报要求，同时关注低价值商品与平台责任的后续调整。Europe is the longer-term reform: the EU is modernising its customs framework around unified data management, sharper risk targeting, better e-commerce import supervision and closer cooperation between member states. For now the operational points remain verifying the importer's EORI, keeping description, HS code, declared value and origin accurate, meeting existing advance-data rules such as ICS2, and watching the coming changes on low-value goods and platform liability.

西班牙两大工会 UGT 与 CCOO 已宣布于 2026 年 11 月 11 日发起全国性 24 小时总罢工，这是两家主要工会 14 年来首次联合发起全国总罢工。罢工距 11 月 29 日提前大选仅 18 天，政治动员色彩浓厚。Spain's two largest unions, UGT and CCOO, have called a 24-hour national general strike for 11 November 2026, the first joint nationwide action by the two in 14 years. It falls 18 days before the snap election on 29 November and is heavily political in character.

对物流的影响不是"当天全部停摆"，而是环节衔接被打乱。公路货运是最可能受影响的环节——卡车司机、仓库作业与配送人员是否参与，直接决定提货和派送能否正常进行；西班牙货物运输联合会（CETM）已公开反对此次罢工。铁路方面，2026 年 2 月西班牙曾因铁路安全爆发全国性罢工，取消约 350 趟高铁和 683 趟中程列车，本次是否波及仍需确认。航空方面，机场地勤近年劳资摩擦频繁，2025 年下半年 Groundforce 等公司曾在马德里、巴塞罗那等 12 个机场多次罢工。港口目前无充分依据确认全面停摆，但 2022 年瓦伦西亚港曾因卡车司机罢工导致船舶排队达 30 艘。The logistics effect is not a one-day shutdown but broken handoffs. Road haulage is most exposed — whether drivers, warehouse staff and delivery crews join decides if collection and delivery happen, and the Spanish road transport confederation CETM has publicly opposed the strike. On rail, a nationwide safety strike in February 2026 cancelled about 350 high-speed and 683 medium-distance services; whether rail joins this time is unconfirmed. On air, ground handling has seen repeated disputes, with Groundforce and others striking at 12 airports including Madrid and Barcelona in late 2025. No firm basis exists yet for a full port shutdown, but in 2022 a truckers' strike left 30 ships queuing at Valencia.