航运市场周报 W43：关税休战延至 1 月 10 日 · 美线双轮 GRI · 港口费 11-09 到期Freight Update W43: Tariff Truce to Jan 10 · Twin Transpacific GRIs · Vessel Fees Due Nov 9

10 月 15 日，中国商务部与美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）先后确认：原定 11 月 10 日到期的中美经贸休战安排延长两个月，至 2027 年 1 月 10 日。双方同时推进各约 300 亿美元规模的对等降税，美方公布的清单共 1,619 项商品，其中约九成将回到最惠国（MFN）税率。清单以消费品为主：厨房小家电（食品加工机、搅拌机、咖啡机、烤面包机）、餐厨具、毛毯与床品、儿童安全座椅与童车、非无线类玩具、节日装饰与仿真花等。同一周，美国国际贸易法院（CIT）准许进口商就 IEEPA 关税提起集体诉讼，为后续退税打开通道。On October 15 China's MOFCOM and the US Trade Representative confirmed that the Kuala Lumpur arrangement, due to lapse on November 10, is extended two months to January 10, 2027. Both sides are advancing roughly $30 billion of reciprocal cuts each; the US list runs to 1,619 tariff lines, about 90% of which return to most-favoured-nation rates. It is consumer-heavy: small kitchen appliances (food processors, blenders, coffee makers, toasters), tableware, blankets and bed linen, child safety seats and strollers, non-wireless toys, festive ornaments and artificial flowers. In the same week the US Court of International Trade allowed importers to bring a class action over IEEPA duties, opening a route to refunds.

对美消费品进口商来说，这是四季度到明年一季度最直接的成本利好：清单落地后，相关 SKU 的综合税率会回到 MFN 档，报价空间和终端定价都能重算。另一块容易被忽略的是存量：此前按 IEEPA 缴纳的关税可能具备退税资格，属于账上已经付掉的钱。For US consumer-goods importers this is the clearest cost relief of the quarter: once the list is implemented the affected SKUs fall back to MFN, so both quoted costs and shelf pricing can be rebuilt. The overlooked half is the back book — duties already paid under IEEPA may now be refundable, and that is cash already out of the door.

泛太平洋东行线把 10 月 15 日与 11 月 1 日两轮运价上调同时写进运价本，分别是 2026 年该航线的第 20 次和第 21 次 GRI，中间只隔 17 天。10 月 15 日这轮共 7 家船司报备：达飞、中远海运、阳明、以星每 40 尺 2,000 美元；长荣、赫伯罗特、HMM 报 3,000 美元。11 月 1 日长荣、HMM、阳明、以星以同额再报一次。其中中远海运的 GRI 仅适用于服务合同项下货物。指数端：10 月 16 日 SCFI 报 3,679.58 点（+15.47，+0.42%），美西 40 尺 7,525 美元（-0.78%）、美东 10,405 美元（-1.13%）；欧洲 3,547 美元（+2.66%）、地中海 4,097 美元（+8.10%）；CCFI 1,922.64 点（+0.5%）。Transpacific eastbound carriers have filed GRIs for both October 15 and November 1 — the 20th and 21st of 2026 on the lane, 17 days apart. Seven carriers filed for October 15: CMA CGM, COSCO, Yang Ming and ZIM at $2,000 per 40ft; Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd and HMM at $3,000. Evergreen, HMM, Yang Ming and ZIM repeat at the same amounts for November 1. Note that COSCO's filing applies only to cargo under service contracts. On the index side, SCFI closed October 16 at 3,679.58 (+15.47, +0.42%): US West Coast $7,525 per FEU (-0.78%), US East Coast $10,405 (-1.13%), Europe $3,547 (+2.66%), Mediterranean $4,097 (+8.10%); CCFI 1,922.64 (+0.5%).

报备不等于收到，但也不能当作不会收：美西只跌 0.78%，说明高运价背后有装载率支撑，加班船投入和巴拿马放宽只是让涨幅停住。如果 11 月 1 日那轮落地，2,000 美元相当于在现价上再加约 27%，3,000 美元接近 40%——10 月签的 CIF/DDP 报价，到装船时可能已经倒挂。A filing is not a collection, but it is not a non-event either: USWC gave up only 0.78%, which tells you load factors are holding the rate up and extra loaders plus the Panama easing have merely paused the rise. If the November 1 round sticks, $2,000 is roughly 27% on top of today's USWC spot and $3,000 close to 40% — enough to turn an October CIF or DDP quote negative by the time the box loads.

美国针对中国建造、中国关联船舶的 301 港口服务费，自 2025 年 11 月 10 日起暂停一年，暂停期将在 2026 年 11 月 9 日 23:59（美东时间）到期。截至 10 月 12 日，USTR 尚未在《联邦公报》发布任何延期通知。9 月底“双边休战延至 2027 年 1 月 10 日”的政治表态并不自动改变这个日期——费用是按单船挂靠计收的，只有正式公告能改。费率结构：Annex I 针对中国关联运营人或船东的船舶，按净吨 80 美元（2027 年 4 月 17 日升至 110 美元）；Annex II 适用于中国建造船舶，取“每净吨 23 美元”与“每卸箱 153 美元”中的高者；每船每年最多计收 5 次；4,000 TEU 及以下、空箱到港等情形豁免。US Section 301 service fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-linked vessels have been suspended since November 10, 2025, and the suspension lapses at 23:59 Eastern on November 9, 2026. As of October 12 USTR had published no extension in the Federal Register. The late-September political commitment to a bilateral truce through January 10, 2027 does not move this date by itself: the fees attach to individual vessel calls, and only a formal notice changes them. The structure: Annex I, for vessels whose operator or owner is China-linked, at $80 per net ton ($110 from April 17, 2027); Annex II, for Chinese-built vessels where Annex I does not apply, at the higher of $23 per net ton or $153 per discharged container; up to five charges per vessel per year; vessels of 4,000 TEU or less and empty arrivals are exempt.

如果按原日期恢复，每挂靠一次美国港口的固定成本会直接跳升，船司通常以附加费或减少挂靠转嫁，最终仍落在进口商的 all-in 成本上。更麻烦的是不确定性：部分船司已表示无法对 11 月 9 日之后的运价给出确定报价，报价窗口被动缩短。If the fees snap back on the original date, the fixed cost of every US call jumps and carriers will pass it on through surcharges or fewer calls — landing, as usual, in the importer's all-in cost. The bigger problem is uncertainty: some carriers already say they cannot quote firm rates for cargo arriving after November 9, which shortens your quoting window.

Xeneta 数据显示，2026 年 9 月全球集装箱班轮准班率降至 27%，环比下降 2 个百分点，平均延误升至 6 天，比二季度初多 2.4 天。分航线看：远东—欧洲准班率只有 4%，平均延误 9.9 天，为 2021 年 9 月以来最差；远东—北美 20%，延误增至 6.9 天。中转端同步恶化，新加坡日均等泊船舶从 12 艘增至 22 艘，平均等待由 1.9 天拉长到 3.1 天。Gemini 联盟准班率从 6 月的 70% 降至 9 月的 40%，9 月最后一周 34%，10 月 5 日当周部分数据低至 28%。运力端：9 月远东—欧洲停航约 6%、远东—北美约 8%，10 月可能分别升至 17% 和 13%。Xeneta data show global schedule reliability at 27% in September 2026, down 2 percentage points month on month, with average delays at 6 days — 2.4 days more than in early Q2. By lane, Far East-Europe managed 4% with average delays of 9.9 days, the worst since September 2021; Far East-North America held 20% with delays up to 6.9 days. Transhipment hubs are deteriorating too: daily waiting ships at Singapore rose from 12 to 22 and average waiting time from 1.9 to 3.1 days. Gemini's reliability fell from 70% in June to 40% in September, 34% in the final week of September and as low as 28% in the week of October 5. On capacity, September blank sailings ran about 6% to Europe and 8% to North America, with October potentially rising to 17% and 13%.

市场矛盾已经从“有没有舱位”转成“订到舱位能不能按时到”。欧线近 10 天的平均延误，直接冲击欧洲仓库存周转、促销备货和末端交付承诺；美线则是“贵且慢”，ETA 反复后移会带来滞箱、堆存和内陆预约失败。The binding constraint has moved from “is there space” to “will the box arrive on time”. Ten days of average delay into Europe hits warehouse turns, promo replenishment and downstream delivery promises; on the transpacific it is expensive and slow at once, and repeated ETA slippage produces detention, storage and missed inland appointments.

巴拿马运河受降雨不足影响，9 月新巴拿马型船闸日通行名额一度降至 9 个、总通行量 32 艘/日；随着水位改善，管理局自 10 月 15 日起将名额恢复到 10 个、总名额增至 33 艘，吃水限制略放宽。但压力并未消失：MarineTraffic 数据显示，1 月至 9 月底共有 69 艘集装箱船等待超过 100 小时才能过河，占同期过境船舶的 3.3%，而 2025 年同期只有 13 艘、0.6%。同期洛杉矶港 9 月吞吐 1,042,652 TEU，创下 118 年单月新高，其中进口重箱 545,696 TEU（同比 +19%）、空箱 371,206 TEU；三季度接近 300 万 TEU。港方称约 5% 的额外货量在起运地被改配到洛杉矶，10 月预计仍有约 90 万 TEU。压力已经转到陆侧：10 月中旬洛杉矶与长滩合计约 8,000 个铁路箱在码头等待超过 9 天，BNSF 方向积压集中。Low rainfall cut Panama's neopanamax slots to 9 a day in September, with total transits at 32 a day; better conditions let the authority restore 10 neopanamax slots and 33 total from October 15, with a slightly relaxed draft limit. The pressure has not gone away: MarineTraffic counts 69 boxships that waited more than 100 hours between January and end-September, 3.3% of transits, against 13 ships and 0.6% in the same period of 2025. Los Angeles handled 1,042,652 TEU in September, a 118-year monthly record, including 545,696 TEU of loaded imports (+19% year on year) and 371,206 TEU of empties; Q3 came close to 3M TEU. The port puts some 5% of extra volume as cargo reallocated to LA at origin, and expects about 900,000 TEU in October. The strain has shifted inland: in mid-October about 8,000 rail containers had sat more than nine days on the LA-LB docks, concentrated on BNSF.

对走 IPI 内陆点、目的地在中西部或南部、以及要按时入 FBA 与零售仓的货，最大风险已经从海上转到铁路提箱与堆存费。只盯船舶 ETA 已经不够，码头到铁路这一段才是四季度最容易失控的环节。For IPI cargo, Midwest and Southern destinations, and anything that must hit an FBA or retail slot, the main risk has moved from ocean to rail dwell and storage charges. Watching the vessel ETA is no longer enough — the quay-to-rail leg is where Q4 schedules break.

Clarksons Research 数据：2026 年 10 月前两周，经苏伊士运河的周均集装箱运力为 75.3 万 TEU，2023 年同期为 145.7 万 TEU。BIMCO 首席航运分析师 Niels Rasmussen 指出，这是红海袭击开始以来运河集装箱通行量首次超过危机前水平的 50%。对比低谷：2024 年 2 月至 2026 年中，周均仅 14.1 万 TEU，约为 2023 年同期的 11%。拐点在 7 月 6 日——Gemini 的 AE15/SE3 亚洲—地中海线率先回归，此后 Ocean Alliance、Premier Alliance 与 MSC 陆续跟进，共 16 条航线调整。目前运河占（运河 + 好望角）总运力的 36%，2024 年至 2026 年中均值为 8%，袭击前为 80%。美国方面，USACE 批准佐治亚港务局 23 亿美元的萨凡纳集装箱码头：Hutchinson Island 350 英亩，新增 350 万 TEU 与 3 个泊位，2028 年 1 月开工、2030 年代中期完工；萨凡纳现有能力 775 万 TEU，目标 1,200 万 TEU，9 月箱量 504,015 TEU 创纪录（+3.7%）。Clarksons Research puts weekly container capacity through Suez at 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October 2026, against 1,457,000 TEU in the same period of 2023. BIMCO chief analyst Niels Rasmussen notes this is the first time container traffic through the canal has passed 50% of pre-crisis levels since the Red Sea attacks began. The trough, from February 2024 to mid-2026, averaged just 141,000 TEU a week, about 11% of 2023. The turning point was July 6, when Gemini returned its AE15/SE3 Asia-Mediterranean service, followed by Ocean Alliance, Premier Alliance and MSC — 16 service changes in all. The canal now carries 36% of combined Suez-plus-Cape capacity, against an 8% average from 2024 to mid-2026 and 80% before the attacks. In the US, USACE approved the Georgia Ports Authority's $2.3 billion Savannah Container Terminal: 350 acres on Hutchinson Island, 3.5M TEU and three berths, construction from January 2028 and completion in the mid-2030s, taking Savannah from 7.75M TEU to a 12M TEU target. Savannah moved a record 504,015 TEU in September, up 3.7%.

欧线运力回流会压制现货运价，但“船走苏伊士”不等于“船期准时”——准班率 4% 说明绕航恢复与班期恢复是两件事。 美东的萨凡纳扩能是长期利好，解决不了当下的铁路与堆场瓶颈。Capacity returning to Suez will cap Europe spot rates, but sailing via Suez is not the same as sailing on time — 4% reliability says routing recovery and schedule recovery are two different things. Savannah's expansion is a long-term gain for the East Coast and does nothing for today's rail and yard bottlenecks.

美东时间 10 月 14 日，美国商务部对原产于中国的卡车车厢盖（Truck Bed Covers）作出反补贴终裁，税率 11.60%–142.11%。叠加 9 月 29 日公布的反倾销初裁（46.95%–107.58%），中国产品面临的合计税率最高达 249.52%，多数中国企业约 150.84%。CBP 自 10 月 1 日起已对该产品暂停清关，进口商须按报关货值缴纳等比例现金保证金，终裁后转为正式关税。涉案产品对应 HS 编码 8708.29.5160，覆盖铝、钢、玻璃纤维、碳纤维、塑料与防水织物的硬盖与软盖，大型封闭式露营顶盖（camper shell）不在范围内。程序尚未走完：反倾销终裁预计 2027 年 2 月 15 日，随后是 ITC 损害终裁。目前美国商务部维持的 AD/CVD 税令共 854 项。On October 14 (US Eastern) the US Commerce Department issued a final countervailing duty determination on truck bed covers from China at 11.60%-142.11%. Combined with the September 29 preliminary antidumping rates of 46.95%-107.58%, the top combined rate reaches 249.52%, with most Chinese producers at about 150.84%. CBP has suspended clearance of the product since October 1, so importers must post cash deposits equal to the applicable percentage of entered value, converted to final duties after the determinations. The case covers HTS 8708.29.5160 — hard and soft covers in aluminium, steel, fibreglass, carbon fibre, plastic and waterproof fabric — while large enclosed camper shells are excluded. The process is not finished: a final antidumping determination is due around February 15, 2027, followed by the ITC injury vote. Commerce currently maintains 854 AD/CVD orders.

对汽配进口商，这个税率水平下订单基本失去商业意义：10 万美元货值仅双反保证金就接近 25 万美元，还没算普通关税和物流成本，现金流会被直接占死。这也说明 2026 年美国贸易救济的整体力度没有放松，即便关税休战在延期。For auto-parts importers an order at this level simply stops making commercial sense: on $100,000 of entered value the AD/CVD deposit alone approaches $250,000 before ordinary duties and logistics, tying up cash outright. It also shows that the overall intensity of US trade remedy action in 2026 has not eased, truce extension or not.

10 月 14 日，厦门海事局公示一起行政处罚：深圳一家货运代理公司因未将托运危险货物的正式名称、危险性质及应采取的防护措施通知承运人，被罚款 5 万元。依据是《海上交通安全法》第六十三条与第一百零九条，该类违规的处罚区间为 5 万至 30 万元。同期货代侧的真实成本远不止罚款：2026 年部分船司对危险品瞒报的违约金为每箱 1 万至 10 万美元，此外还有卸船、堆存、滞箱、退运、销毁费用，以及查验率上升、AEO 与订舱资格受影响等长期后果。海事、海关、港口今年以来的联合核查明显趋严，部分案件已从罚款上升到刑事追责。On October 14 the Xiamen Maritime Safety Administration published a penalty: a Shenzhen forwarder was fined RMB50,000 for failing to notify the carrier of the proper name, hazardous nature and precautions of dangerous goods it tendered. The basis is Articles 63 and 109 of the Maritime Traffic Safety Law, where the penalty range is RMB50,000 to RMB300,000. The real cost to a forwarder goes well beyond the fine: in 2026 some carriers levy liquidated damages of $10,000 to $100,000 per container for misdeclaration, on top of unstuffing, storage, detention, return and destruction charges, plus higher inspection rates and consequences for AEO status and booking rights. Joint checks by maritime, customs and port authorities have tightened this year, and some cases have moved from fines to criminal liability.

危货申报已经从操作细节变成合规红线，而且责任是双向的：货主申报不实、货代未做核验，双方都可能被追责。对我们来说，这一条同时也划清了接货边界——不是所有“带电”的货都能按普货走。Dangerous-goods declaration has moved from an operational detail to a hard compliance line, and liability runs both ways: a shipper who misdeclares and a forwarder who fails to verify can both be pursued. For us this also draws the cargo-scope boundary — not every “battery” product can move as general cargo.