航运市场周报 W42：美国进口创纪录 · 霍尔木兹遇袭频发 · 欧洲线 10-19 涨价Freight Update W42: Record US Imports · Hormuz Attacks · Europe Hikes Oct 19

2026 年 9 月，洛杉矶港集装箱吞吐量达到 1,042,652 TEU，刷新该港 118 年历史上单月最高纪录，同时创下西半球港口单月箱量纪录；进口重箱 545,696 TEU，同比增长 19%，出口重箱 125,751 TEU，同比增长 10%。长滩港同期也创下新纪录，箱量逼近 100 万。In September 2026 the Port of Los Angeles handled 1,042,652 TEU, its highest month in 118 years and a record for any port in the Western Hemisphere. Loaded imports were 545,696 TEU, up 19% year on year, and loaded exports 125,751 TEU, up 10%. Long Beach also set a record, approaching one million TEU.

但港方自己也提示了风险：洛杉矶港负责人在创纪录的同时警告关税驱动的规划不确定性——这轮高点很大程度是进口商在关税窗口前抢运的结果，而不是需求的持续扩张。同期铁路端出现积压，约 8,000 个铁路箱压在码头等待装车。The port itself flagged the risk: alongside the record, the Port of LA chief warned about tariff-driven planning uncertainty — much of the surge reflects importers front-loading ahead of tariff windows rather than sustained demand growth. Rail also backed up, with roughly 8,000 containers sitting at the terminals awaiting loading.

中东局势在过去一周急剧升级：霍尔木兹海峡多艘商船遇袭，其中两艘沉没，UKMTO 表示大部分船舶袭击事件并未被上报。沙特方向，胡塞武装连续三天袭击利雅得机场与沙特阿美达兰总部园区，利雅得哈立德国王国际机场一度关闭。The Middle East escalated sharply over the week: several merchant ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, two of them sinking, and UKMTO said most attacks on ships go unreported. Towards Saudi Arabia, Houthi attacks hit Riyadh airport and the Aramco headquarters campus in Dhahran over three consecutive days, and King Khalid International Airport was briefly closed.

成本端已经反映出来：油运成本飙升并传导至终端价格，船用燃料市场因中东贸易受扰而分裂，超大型油轮运价从历史高位回落但仍在高位。中东航运市场出现四天 10 艘船遇袭、运费与保费合计超过货值三分之一、船员工资飙升十倍的局面。The cost side has already reacted: oil shipping costs spiked and passed through to end prices, the bunker market fragmented as Middle East trade was disrupted, and VLCC rates eased from record highs but stayed elevated. In the Middle East market, ten ships were attacked in four days, freight plus insurance exceeded a third of cargo value on some routes, and crew wages spiked tenfold.

达飞、马士基、赫伯罗特与 MSC 相继宣布自 10 月 19 日起上调亚洲至欧洲、地中海及北非方向 FAK 运价。此时欧地线运价刚出现止跌迹象：10 月 9 日 SCFI 报 3,664.11 点、周涨 0.05%，结束连续两周下跌，远东至欧洲 2,274 美元/TEU、周涨 3.4%，远东至地中海 3,002 美元/TEU、周涨 0.2%。CMA CGM, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC all announced FAK increases from 19 October on Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa, just as the trade stopped falling: on 9 October the SCFI stood at 3,664.11 points, up 0.05% on the week and ending two weeks of decline, with Far East to Europe at USD 2,274 per TEU, up 3.4%, and Far East to the Mediterranean at USD 3,002 per TEU, up 0.2%.

但现货并未同步走强，德路里 WCI 显示上海至鹿特丹周跌 2% 至 3,337 美元/FEU。宣涨能否落地取决于节后货量恢复、舱位紧张程度以及苏伊士运河复航进度三个变量。Spot did not follow: Drewry's WCI showed Shanghai to Rotterdam down 2% on the week at USD 3,337 per FEU. Whether the increases hold depends on three variables — post-holiday volume recovery, how tight space becomes, and the pace of Suez Canal restoration.

受强厄尔尼诺影响，运河流域降水持续偏低。运河管理局自 2026 年 9 月起将每日通行上限从 36 艘下调至 32 艘，新巴拿马型船闸通行量进一步降至 23 艘，吃水限制从 50 英尺降至 44 英尺。Under a strong El Niño, rainfall in the canal watershed has stayed low. From September 2026 the canal authority cut daily transits from 36 to 32, reduced neopanamax lock slots to 23, and lowered the draft limit from 50 to 44 feet.

实际影响是运力被吃掉：大型集装箱船每艘可能损失约 2,400 TEU 的有效运力，而中东地缘风险又把部分能源运输需求推向美湾方向，进一步增加了经巴拿马运河的跨洋货运量。限行与需求上行同时发生，是这条水道当前最棘手的地方。The practical effect is lost capacity: a large container ship may give up roughly 2,400 TEU of effective slots, while Middle East risk pushes some energy cargo towards the US Gulf, adding cross-ocean demand through the canal. Restrictions and rising demand at the same time is what makes this waterway hard to plan around.

10 月 9 日，联合国万国邮政联盟发布《2026 年邮政行业状况报告》。报告显示，美国取消低值进口商品免税政策后，2025 年 9 月入境美国的包裹量同比下降近 70%，欧美两大核心消费市场在低值包裹税收新政落地后出现显著结构性变化。On 9 October the Universal Postal Union published its Postal Sector State of Play 2026 report. It shows that after the US removed de minimis treatment for low-value imports, inbound parcel volumes into the US fell nearly 70% year on year in September 2025, with both major Western consumer markets showing structural change once low-value parcel taxes took effect.

这个数字的意义不在降幅本身，而在模式切换：大量低客单价、直邮驱动的订单已经无法用原来的成本结构维持，货流向海外仓备货和本地分销迁移。欧盟也在 2026 年 7 月取消了 150 欧元以下包裹的关税豁免，方向一致。The significance is not the size of the drop but the model shift: high-volume, low-ticket, direct-mail orders can no longer sustain their old cost structure, and flows are migrating to overseas warehouse stocking and local distribution. The EU removed its duty relief for parcels under EUR 150 in July 2026, in the same direction.

为期数轮的中美经贸磋商在 10 月上旬进入关键窗口。此前达成的休战安排原定 11 月 10 日到期，双方在此期间就关税清单、出口管制与船舶港口费等问题持续交涉。市场普遍把 11 月 10 日视为四季度出货节奏的分水岭。US-China trade talks entered a critical window in early October. The existing truce arrangement was due to lapse on 10 November, with both sides negotiating tariff lists, export controls and vessel port fees in the interim. The market broadly treats 10 November as the dividing line for fourth-quarter shipping rhythm.

进口量创纪录的另一面是码头与拖车环节的承压。美西主要港口在 9 月箱量高位之后，底盘车周转、拖车司机排班与铁路装车都出现紧张，部分码头提箱预约窗口被压缩。业内反映，即使船舶准时到港，货物离开码头的时间也在拉长。The flip side of record imports is pressure on terminals and drayage. After September's high volumes, chassis turnover, driver scheduling and rail loading all tightened at the main US West Coast gateways, and pickup appointment windows narrowed at some terminals. The industry feedback is that even when ships arrive on time, cargo is taking longer to leave the terminal.