航运市场周报 W40：美对华双反终裁 264% · 达飞拉美线涨价 1000 美元 · 准班率跌破 50%Freight Update W40: US AD/CVD Final 264% · CMA CGM +$1,000/Box · Reliability Below 50%

美东时间 9 月 25 日，美国国际贸易委员会（USITC）正式发布公告，针对中国进口的厢式拖车及其子组件作出反倾销、反补贴及双反调查最终肯定性损害裁定。本次终裁结果落地，标志着美国针对该品类的双反关税措施正式实施，综合税率高达 264.48%。On September 25 (US Eastern Time), the US International Trade Commission (USITC) published its final affirmative injury determinations in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Chinese-built van trailers and their subassemblies. With the final ruling in place, combined AD/CVD duties of 264.48% now formally apply to the category.

拖车类产品单价高、税率高，终裁落地后相关对美出口基本失去价格可行性，订单预计将向东南亚等第三地产能转移。With high unit values and punitive rates, exports of this category to the US are effectively priced out, and orders are expected to shift to third-country production such as Southeast Asia.

美东时间 9 月 25 日，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）做客 CNBC 财经节目，公开对外披露中美近期贸易谈判的阶段性成果，释放出中美经贸关系缓和的重要信号，并表示将于 9 月 28 日公布对 2000 多亿美元中国商品降税的清单细节。On September 25, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC that recent US-China talks had produced interim results, signaling a thaw in trade relations, with details of tariff reductions on over US$200 billion of Chinese goods to be published on September 28.

自 2026 年 9 月 25 日起，欧盟委员会正式发布《委员会实施条例（EU）2026/2133》，针对包括中国在内多个国家和地区进口的取向电工钢（GOES）及其下游叠片、变压器类产品，出台"关税配额 + 最低进口价"组合式临时保障措施。Effective September 25, 2026, the European Commission published Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133, imposing a combined tariff-rate-quota and minimum-import-price temporary safeguard on grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) and downstream laminates and transformer products imported from China and several other origins.

配额外进口将承担更高关税，最低进口价机制则直接抬高申报价格下限，两项措施叠加将明显抬高相关产品的对欧出口成本。Above-quota volumes face materially higher duties, while the MIP mechanism raises the floor for declared values — together sharply lifting export costs to the EU.

达飞（CMA CGM）发布拉美航线最新运价上调公告：对亚洲至拉丁美洲全球航线实施标准化统一涨价，新一轮涨价将于 2026 年 10 月 15 日起正式落地执行，每箱最高加收 1000 美元，覆盖航线范围广。CMA CGM has announced a standardized general rate increase across its Asia to Latin America services, effective October 15, 2026, adding up to US$1,000 per container on a wide scope of lanes.

根据国际航运分析机构 Sea-Intelligence 发布的最新监测数据，2026 年国庆黄金周前后四周，亚洲至北欧航线的运力变化最为突出：国庆档亚欧航线运力大幅攀升，创多年同期新高，黄金周结束后运力将集中释放。Sea-Intelligence data shows Asia to North Europe capacity in the four weeks around China's Golden Week climbing to a multi-year seasonal high, with space releasing in waves once the holiday ends.

最新行业监测数据显示，2026 年 8 月全球集装箱班轮运输市场稳定性持续恶化：当月全球集装箱班轮船期可靠性降至 49.9%，环比 7 月大幅下跌 5 个百分点，船舶平均延误时间攀升至 6.81 天，创近年来新低。Industry monitoring shows global liner schedule reliability fell to 49.9% in August 2026 — down 5 percentage points month-on-month — with average delays climbing to 6.81 days, a multi-year low.

上周报道的雅加达丹戎不碌港 NPCT1 码头危险品火灾（9 月 21 日下午）有了更完整的损失清单：事故共烧毁 51 个罐式集装箱和 1 个危险品货柜，全部位于码头危险品作业区。港区安全整顿与危险品接卸审核预计将持续收紧。The DG fire at NPCT1, Tanjung Priok (afternoon of September 21) now has a fuller loss list: 51 ISO tank containers and 1 dangerous-goods container were destroyed, all inside the terminal's DG zone. Safety rectification and tighter DG acceptance are expected to continue.

当地时间 9 月 24 日，在纽约联合国大会会期期间，美国与伊朗展开新一轮场外外交磋商，试图打破长期对立僵局。本轮谈判核心聚焦霍尔木兹海峡通航恢复、美方封锁解除、对伊制裁松动等议题，原油价格应声大跌。On September 24, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, the US and Iran held a new round of diplomatic talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US blockade and easing sanctions; crude prices fell sharply on the news.

9 月 25 日上午，希腊海域发生一起大型滚装船海上起火事故：一艘载有近 200 辆车的滚装货船在正常航行途中突发甲板大火，火势迅速蔓延，连续燃烧 3 天仍未完全扑灭，处置周期远超常规船舶事故。On the morning of September 25, a large ro-ro vessel carrying nearly 200 vehicles caught fire while under way in Greek waters; the deck fire spread rapidly and burned for three days before being brought under control — far longer than a typical incident.

当地时间 9 月 25 日，欧盟委员会在《欧盟官方公报》发布实施条例（EU）2026/2118，宣布对原产于中国的"北京鸭"（Pekin duck）进口产品实施海关登记。该举措是欧盟反倾销调查中的追溯机制：登记期内进口的货物，若终裁征税将追溯至登记日起补征，税率最高可达 223%。On September 25, the European Commission published Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2118 in the Official Journal, imposing customs registration on "Pekin duck" imports from China — a retroactive mechanism in anti-dumping investigations: goods imported during the registration period can be charged duties retroactively if a final ruling confirms them, at rates up to 223%.