中国航运市场周报：第 37 周China Freight Market Update: Week 37

马士基发布两项 9 月内生效的运营调整，核心是欧盟 ICS2 进口监管规则：装船前必须完成完整申报，没有有效 MRN（海关主参考号）的货物将面临甩柜风险，不再是"先上船后补料"。Maersk has announced operational changes taking effect this month, centered on the EU ICS2 import control regime: filings must be complete before loading, and cargo without a valid MRN (Master Reference Number) now risks being rolled off the vessel — no more "ship first, fix paperwork later".

ICS2 申报质量取决于发货前提交的单证：商业发票、EORI 号和准确的 HS 编码。缺一项，欧洲清关链路就会卡住。ICS2 filing quality depends on documents provided before shipping: commercial invoice, EORI number and accurate HS codes. Missing any one of them jams the EU clearance chain.

美伊海上冲突升级后，布伦特原油突破 100 美元/桶。燃油是集装箱运输的最大单项成本，未来 2-4 周内，预计各船司将陆续上调 BAF/紧急燃油附加费，中东及相关中转航线的战争险保费也会走高。After the US-Iran naval escalation, Brent crude broke above $100/barrel. Bunker fuel is the single largest cost in container shipping — expect carriers to raise BAF/emergency bunker surcharges over the next 2-4 weeks, with war-risk premiums climbing on Middle East and transshipment-heavy lanes.

美国贸易代表办公室确认，将于 9 月 24 日公布对华降税清单，涉及约 2000 亿元人民币商品，部分关税有望下调或豁免。The USTR will publish its tariff-reduction list on September 24 under the reciprocal trade framework, covering around RMB 200 billion of Chinese goods, with some duties expected to be cut or waived.

降税改变的是到岸成本结构：同一个 HS 编码，降税前后采购成本差可能达到 5-25%，直接影响下单量和定价。Duty cuts change landed-cost structures: for the same HS code, the difference before and after can reach 5-25% of procurement cost — directly affecting order volumes and pricing.

亚洲多港拥堵之下，双子星联盟宣布部分航次取消上海港挂靠，华东出口舱位与船期波动加剧；与此同时，部分航线运力重回苏伊士，不同贸易走廊的时效走势明显分化——全球集运不再是一个统一市场。Amid port congestion across Asia, the Gemini alliance has skipped Shanghai calls on some loops, tightening space and schedule reliability for East China exports. Meanwhile, some capacity is returning to Suez as corridor conditions diverge sharply — global container shipping is no longer one unified market.

中非合作框架下对 53 个非洲建交国的零关税政策进入倒计时，非洲进口商从中国采购的到岸成本结构即将迎来系统性下降——这是近几年少见的结构性红利。Zero-tariff access for 53 African countries under the China-Africa cooperation framework is entering its countdown — a systemic drop in landed costs for African importers sourcing from China, and one of the rare structural tailwinds of recent years.